Serious optimism is swirling around Elland Road following Leeds United‘s unbeaten start to the Premier League season.
The Whites opened the campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 win away at Nottingham Forest, before beating them 2-0 days later in the Carabao Cup. Leeds then came from behind to draw 1-1 at home to Brentford and earned the same result away at Brighton and Hove Albion.
Daniel Farke’s men host Newcastle United on Monday night in a battle between two sides locked on five points. But can Leeds sustain this promising start, or is it all destined to fall apart? Let’s dig into the underlying numbers.
Squeezing every drop out of the attack
Leeds’ solid start certainly hasn’t been built on a free-flowing attack. The Yorkshire side have scored just three goals in three Premier League matches, with only one coming from open play.
Farke’s side are also 14th in the top flight for overall shots (33), 14th for big chances created (four) and joint-bottom alongside Hull City for chances created (19).
However, the Whites have found a way. Anton Stach’s late free-kick on the opening weekend was a moment of sheer quality. The equaliser against Brentford was peak Dominic Calvert-Lewin poaching. And Jayden Bogle was alive in the box at Brighton.
Leeds have found their goals from 4.42 Expected Goals, ranking 11th in the Premier League ahead of Gameweek Two. The underperformance comes from Calvert-Lewin (two), Stach (one) and Ao Tanaka (one) missing four of their six total big chances combined.
That said, they scored three at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup in midweek — though they conceded six. And they scored a respectable 49 goals last season. So we know this is a side that knows where the net is.
Solid defence props up forwards
One of the key reasons why Leeds’ goals-scored column reads so sparsely is that Farke has made them hard to break down at the start of this campaign.
The Chelsea result aside, Leeds have conceded just two goals in four competitive matches so far. In Premier League play, their 4.52 xG conceded is a record bettered only by six teams. And two of those are title favourites Arsenal (0.9) and Manchester City (2.7).
Leeds have been compact, but also diligent and tenacious in their defensive duties. They rank third in the division for tackles (55) and interceptions (34), and first for clearances (112). It’s been a simple approach from the Whites, who are down in 14th for possessions won in the attacking third (eight). But an extremely effective one.
Ethan Ampadu has screened the defence well with a team-high seven interceptions. Meanwhile, summer arrival Tarik Muharemovic has added steel to the backline, sitting first among his teammates for clearances (25) and shots blocked (5), and being dribbled past just twice so far.
The result of all this is a drastic improvement in the metric that counts most defensively. Leeds are conceding just 1.0 goals per game compared to 1.47 last season, when only the bottom four had a worse record.
Lack of depth an accident waiting to happen
If Leeds’ defensive solidity were to abandon them, Farke could have a problem on his hands, given the lack of output at the other end. However, that doesn’t look like happening any time soon based on the performances of his starting defenders in Premier League play.
If there is one thing that could trip Leeds up, however, it is a lack of depth in key areas and a drop in quality behind their starting lineup.
James Trafford has averaged 3.67 saves per 90 minutes so far this season at an 84.6% success rate. However, his understudy, Michael Zetterer, endured a ‘nightmare’ debut against Chelsea in the cup, as Farke himself put it.
“Michael has played many games on Bundesliga level. He has played Champions League, and it’s a nightmare debut, let’s be honest,” Farke said after his fellow German conceded six goals, made just two saves and prevented -2.58 goals.
There were some questionable refereeing decisions at Stamford Bridge that turned the game. But the defensive collapse amid heavy rotation was stark.
Leeds United’s squad depth
Leeds currently only have four natural centre-backs on their depth chart to go into three positions. And one of them — Joe Rodon — is sidelined until November with a hamstring injury.
Further fitness issues in this department would pile huge pressure on the likes of Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor in attacking areas, with the disruption and square pegs in round holes sure to cause problems.
What’s more, Zetterer’s showing at Chelsea will be a blow to his confidence, and could have elevated Trafford as Leeds’ most important player in the space of just 90 minutes.
There is plenty to be excited about at Leeds United right now, but there are a few cracks in the ice which Farke must carefully navigate in the coming weeks to keep the momentum going.