Manchester United have struggled to start the new season. But their main attacking problem may not be what most people think it is.
A lot has been said of the Red Devils since Michael Carrick first took over as interim in January. The former midfielder usually has his teams dominating the ball and territory while playing with a slower pace and intricate passing sequences, like the best versions of his Middlesbrough side from 2022 until 2025.
Instead, he chose an entirely different approach when returning to Old Trafford. So much so that he made his debut by defeating Manchester City 2-0, accumulating 2.3 Expected Goals to the Citizens’ 0.5 with just 32% possession. And then followed it up by going to Arsenal and beating them at the Emirates 3-2 with 44% possession.
Carrick also went on to beat all the remaining sides from the ‘Big Six’: Tottenham Hotpur (2-0), Chelsea (1-0) and Liverpool (3-2). Man Utd only had more of the ball against Thomas Frank‘s Spurs, a game in which Cristian Romero was sent off in the first half.
Fast forward to the current season, however, and the Red Devils are struggling to dictate the terms of the game. While it’s easier for every football club in the world to create chances in transition than building up against set defences, Man Utd can’t seem to deal with this responsibility.
But creating chances might not be their main issue.
Why is putting chances away Man Utd’s biggest problem?
There are a few factors that could easily explain why Man Utd have been so poor this season compared to last. They had much more rest between games, playing only in the Premier League when Carrick took over.
And they are now building up against low blocks almost twice as often this term (48.5 times per game) than last (26.5 per game).
And yet, the Red Devils are still among the top six sides in many different statistics regarding creativity. They rank second in xG in the Premier League this season (9.6), behind only Brighton and Hove Albion.
Man Utd also rank sixth in big chances (15), as well as fifth in shots worth 0.15+ xG (15) and shots worth 0.20+ xG (11).
And a few of those would have made a world of difference should have they gone in. Bruno Fernandes’ effort that hit the post in the first half against Fulham or Bryan Mbeumo‘s shot in the final minute of the loss to Man City.
Not to mention Patrick Dorgu‘s back-post attempt and Mbeumo’s missed opportunity in fast break – both in the opening weekend defeat to Hull City.
At individual level, there are a few stand-out numbers as well. Two of the top three players in chances created in the Premier League so far play for Man Utd.
“So what exactly is going wrong?”, one could ask. The problem is what they are doing with those chances.
Man Utd may be sixth in the Premier League in big chances. But they are fifth in big chances missed as well (10). Ironically, their 33% conversion rate is above league average, which is 32%.
Carrick’s men are also 15th in xG performance, scoring 1.6 goals fewer than expected.
And the worst part is not just that they are just missing chances. It’s how badly they are missing all these opportunities.
The Red Devils’ 9.6 xG actually decreases to 6.4 post-shot xG. This means that there are better chances of them scoring before taking the shot than after. No other side has been as bad placing shots as Man Utd. Their differential of -3.2 is far and away the worst in the league. Fulham (-2.3) and Nottingham Forest (-2.6) are also below -2. All other 17 teams have -1.2 onwards.
Of course, being more clynical wouldn’t make Man Utd a great team overnight. They still fall into bad habits of playing out wide and whipping random crosses into the box way too easily.
Not to mention the other end of the pitch. As much as they are creating good opportunities, they are also conceding plenty. But there is a world in which the Red Devils scored a few of the decent chances they missed and would be in a more comfortable situation.
Putting opportunities away is a better flaw to have than actually creating them in the first place.