Our Falcons vs Saints prediction closes Week 4 in the small hours of Tuesday, and Atlanta arrive transformed. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Atlanta Falcons ran for 242 yards at Green Bay and won 35-14 with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have scored 10 touchdowns but conceded 10 sacks. The Caesars Superdome hosts the final game of the round.
Falcons vs Saints: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Falcons vs Saints: 2026 form so far
A division game between two 1-2 teams heading in opposite directions. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has allowed.
Falcons attack against the Saints defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Saints allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 167.7 | 211.7 |
| Rushing yards | 173.0 | 128.7 |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Passer rating | 58.2 | 101.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.3% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Saints attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Saints offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 281.3 | 263.0 |
| Rushing yards | 101.3 | 47.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Passer rating | 99.2 | 88.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.2% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 81.8% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Atlanta have allowed 143 rushing yards all season at 2.8 a carry, the meanest run defence in the league. New Orleans convert 81.8% in the red zone.
Falcons vs Saints quarterback matchup
Michael Penix Jr. has played one game and Tyler Shough three, which is why Atlanta’s season rating reads worse than their last result.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg (1 game) |
| Saints | Tyler Shough | 29/42, 255 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 106.7 rtg | 91/132, 917 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 99.2 rtg (3 games) |
Falcons vs Saints injury report and team news
Michael Penix Jr. returned at quarterback for Atlanta and threw for 256 yards at Green Bay in his first appearance of the season.
James Pearce Jr. is suspended for Atlanta, a year after recording 10 sacks.
Tyler Shough threw four touchdown passes against Las Vegas and has 917 passing yards, second only to Bryce Young.
Where Falcons vs Saints is decided
Atlanta have allowed 143 rushing yards in three games at 2.8 a carry, the meanest run defence in the league by a distance.
Their own ground game has arrived too. Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards at Green Bay as Atlanta ran for 242 in a 35-14 win.
New Orleans are the better passing side, with Shough at a 99.2 rating and 81.8% red-zone conversion. But they have conceded 10 sacks, and Atlanta will reach him.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB): 256 yards and a touchdown in his first appearance of the season.
- Tyler Shough (NO, QB): 29 of 42 for 255 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas.
- Chris Olave (NO, WR): Nine catches for 107 yards in Week 3.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
Kickoff is 1.15am BST in the early hours of Tuesday 6 October at the Caesars Superdome, which is 8:15 PM ET on Monday. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Falcons vs Saints |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1.15am BST Tuesday / 8:15 PM ET Monday |
| Venue | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| TV | DAZN / NFL Game Pass |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Saints prediction and score projection
Our Falcons vs Saints prediction is a New Orleans win, 26-23. The Saints are at home with the better quarterback, though Atlanta’s form makes this the closest call of the round.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | You are here |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Falcons vs Saints FAQ
1.15am BST in the early hours of Tuesday 6 October, which is 8:15 PM ET on Monday.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. Monday night games are never blacked out in the UK. The blackout covers only Sky’s two Sunday exclusive picks.
No. Pearce is suspended. He recorded 10 sacks for Atlanta last season.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change