Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is this week’s free-to-air pick on 5ACTION, and it is a hard watch for New England. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The New England Patriots have thrown one touchdown and six interceptions in three games. The Buffalo Bills have scored 13 touchdowns and run for 465 yards at 5.2 a carry. Highmark Stadium is a difficult place to arrive in this state.
Patriots vs Bills: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Patriots vs Bills: 2026 form so far
A 3-0 team against a quarterback in freefall. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Bills defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 197.7 | 254.3 |
| Rushing yards | 109.3 | 107.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 60.8 | 105.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.5% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 16.7% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Bills attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Bills offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 246.7 | 170.0 |
| Rushing yards | 155.0 | 108.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 104.1 | 85.8 |
| Touchdowns | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 54.5% | 34.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 62.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New England convert 16.7% of red-zone trips and Buffalo 75%. That is the fixture in one comparison.
Patriots vs Bills quarterback matchup
Both quarterbacks had a poor Week 3. Only one of them has thrown six interceptions across the season.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg | 51/80, 585 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT, 58.6 rtg (3 games) |
| Tommy DeVito | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game) | |
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 56/86, 786 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 104.1 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bills injury report and team news
Drake Maye threw two interceptions at Jacksonville and gave up five snaps to Tommy DeVito, the first time New England have split the throws this season.
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, a year after making 1,003 receiving yards for Philadelphia.
Harold Landry III remains on the physically unable to perform list after recording eight sacks last season.
Where Patriots vs Bills is decided
Drake Maye has one touchdown pass and six interceptions at a 58.6 rating. Last season he threw 31 touchdowns to eight at 113.5. That is a collapse rather than a slow start.
Buffalo are not flawless. Josh Allen managed a 54.0 rating against the Chargers and the Bills turned it over five times, then won by eight anyway.
For anyone watching free on 5ACTION, the draw is Allen rather than the contest. He has six rushing touchdowns already, so even his poor days produce points.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 199 yards and two interceptions at Jacksonville.
- Mack Hollins (NE, WR): Six catches for 87 yards in Week 3.
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): Two rushing touchdowns against the Chargers.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 154 rushing yards at 6.4 a carry in Week 3.
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
Kickoff is 6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Highmark Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. 5ACTION has it free to air from 5.30pm, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport’s YouTube channel. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bills |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 4 October |
| Venue | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| TV | 5ACTION |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bills prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is a Buffalo win, 30-16. The Bills have been sloppy and remain unbeaten; New England have three touchdowns in three weeks.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Patriots vs Bills FAQ
Yes. 5ACTION has it from 5.30pm ahead of a 6.00pm BST kickoff, and it also streams free on Channel 5 Sport’s YouTube channel. Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Highmark Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
No. 5ACTION games are not affected by the blackout, which applies only to Sky’s two Sunday exclusive picks.
No. Brown is on injured reserve. He made 1,003 receiving yards for Philadelphia last season before joining the Patriots.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change