Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction is the 6pm window’s oddest fixture: a winless team whose defence has been excellent. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Dallas Cowboys convert 57.1% on third down and have scored 10 touchdowns. The Houston Texans have 11 sacks, more than all but two teams, and have lost all three. NRG Stadium should tell us which of those matters more.
Cowboys vs Texans: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Cowboys vs Texans: 2026 form so far
A good offence against a good defence, and two records that flatter neither. The table sets each attack against what the opposite side has allowed.
Cowboys attack against the Texans defence
| Per game | Cowboys offence | Texans allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.0 | 238.7 |
| Rushing yards | 94.3 | 86.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Passer rating | 107.2 | 104.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 57.1% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 42.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 3.7 |
Texans attack against the Cowboys defence
| Per game | Texans offence | Cowboys allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.3 | 207.3 |
| Rushing yards | 84.7 | 179.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Passer rating | 87.3 | 121.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.4% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 69.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 0.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Dallas convert 57.1% on third down and allow 58.8%. Houston’s 11 sacks are the reason this should stay close.
Cowboys vs Texans quarterback matchup
Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud have 10 touchdown passes and one interception between them, which is not what an 0-3 record usually looks like.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 25/40, 276 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 91.3 rtg | 73/105, 730 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, 107.2 rtg (3 games) |
| Texans | C.J. Stroud | 16/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.6 rtg | 72/120, 794 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 88.0 rtg (3 games) |
Cowboys vs Texans injury report and team news
Dak Prescott has thrown seven touchdown passes to a single interception, a ratio bettered only by Brock Purdy’s nine to one.
C.J. Stroud threw for 167 yards at Indianapolis, Houston’s lowest passing output of the season, in a two-point defeat.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Cowboys vs Texans is decided
Dallas have allowed 539 rushing yards at 5.0 a carry, with Baltimore taking 192 of them last week. Houston average 3.6 a carry, so they are poorly placed to use it.
The Houston pass rush is the real thing. Eleven sacks in three games, Will Anderson Jr. on four of them, against a Dallas line that has conceded three.
Houston’s three defeats have come by five, 14 and two points. A defence this good keeps them in everything; the offence has not yet won them anything.
Players to watch
- Dak Prescott (DAL, QB): 276 yards against Baltimore, seven touchdowns to one interception this season.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR): Seven catches for 112 yards in Week 3.
- Will Anderson Jr. (HOU, DE): Two and a half sacks at Indianapolis, four in three games.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU, QB): 794 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
How to watch Cowboys vs Texans
Kickoff is 6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at NRG Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Cowboys vs Texans |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 4 October |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| TV | DAZN / NFL Game Pass |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Cowboys vs Texans prediction and score projection
Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction is a Dallas win, 27-24. Houston’s front will make it uncomfortable, but two touchdowns a game is not enough.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Cowboys vs Texans FAQ
6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at NRG Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Houston have 11 sacks but only six touchdowns in three games. Their defeats came by five, 14 and two points.
Dallas, narrowly, despite playing away. The Cowboys are 1-2 with 10 touchdowns; Houston are 0-3 with six.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change