Our Jets vs Bears prediction is one for the 6pm window, and it sets the league’s tidiest passer against its heaviest ground game. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The New York Jets have thrown four touchdown passes and no interceptions at a 110.0 rating. The Chicago Bears have run for 553 yards at 5.3 a carry. Soldier Field pairs two teams who win in opposite ways.
Jets vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Jets vs Bears: 2026 form so far
Accuracy against volume. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has actually allowed.
Jets attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Jets offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.7 | 207.0 |
| Rushing yards | 92.3 | 117.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Passer rating | 110.0 | 81.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.2% | 29.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 2.3 |
Bears attack against the Jets defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Jets allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 223.7 | 171.0 |
| Rushing yards | 184.3 | 87.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 96.8 | 98.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 47.6% | 32.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
The Jets average 3.3 a carry and the Bears 5.3. If Chicago shorten the game, Geno Smith simply sees the ball less.
Jets vs Bears quarterback matchup
Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in 102 attempts. Case Keenum has started once, and started well.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | Geno Smith | 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.8 rtg | 77/102, 783 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg (3 games) |
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
Jets vs Bears injury report and team news
Case Keenum made his first start of the season in Chicago’s 27-7 win over Philadelphia and threw for 247 yards at a 110.8 rating.
Geno Smith completed 31 of 37 at Detroit and remains one of only three quarterbacks past 100 attempts without an interception.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Jets vs Bears is decided
Chicago’s ground game is the most productive in the league: 553 yards at 5.3 a carry with seven rushing touchdowns, and a 47.6% third-down rate keeping drives alive.
New York answer with precision rather than power. Four touchdown passes, no interceptions, and a rushing average of 3.3 that leaves Smith doing all of it.
The complication is Chicago’s quarterback. One start at 110.8 is a thin sample on which to price a home side, however comfortable that start looked.
Players to watch
- Geno Smith (NYJ, QB): 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Detroit.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR): 10 catches for 107 yards and a score in Week 3.
- Case Keenum (CHI, QB): 247 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 20 carries for 84 yards in Week 3.
How to watch Jets vs Bears
Kickoff is 6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Soldier Field, which is 1:00 PM ET. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Jets vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 4 October |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | DAZN / NFL Game Pass |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Jets vs Bears prediction and score projection
Our Jets vs Bears prediction is a Chicago win, 27-24. The Bears can shorten the game and New York cannot.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Jets vs Bears FAQ
6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Soldier Field, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Case Keenum started Week 3 and threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns. It is his only appearance of the season so far.
Chicago, at home. The Bears are 2-1 with a plus-36 point differential.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change