Our Packers vs Buccaneers prediction pairs the league’s least productive run game with the line that has conceded the most sacks. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Green Bay Packers have run for 146 yards at 3.0 a carry, the lowest total in the league. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have conceded 13 sacks, the most in the league. Raymond James Stadium hosts two sides with structural problems.
Packers vs Buccaneers: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Packers vs Buccaneers: 2026 form so far
One team cannot run and the other cannot protect. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has allowed.
Packers attack against the Buccaneers defence
| Per game | Packers offence | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 266.7 | 206.7 |
| Rushing yards | 48.7 | 76.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Passer rating | 83.5 | 93.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 27.8% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 41.7% | 37.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.0 |
Buccaneers attack against the Packers defence
| Per game | Buccaneers offence | Packers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 185.0 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards | 94.3 | 138.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Passer rating | 73.4 | 97.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.6% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 30.0% | 83.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 4.3 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Green Bay’s 32 penalties for 276 yards are the most in the league, and they concede 83.3% of red-zone trips. Both keep Tampa Bay involved.
Packers vs Buccaneers quarterback matchup
Jordan Love has attempted 124 passes because Green Bay cannot run. Baker Mayfield has been sacked behind a line that has conceded 13.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 rtg | 65/124, 844 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 83.5 rtg (3 games) |
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.9 rtg | 61/96, 615 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 80.0 rtg (3 games) |
| Jalon Daniels | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0.0 rtg | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0.0 rtg (1 game) |
Packers vs Buccaneers injury report and team news
Josh Jacobs is on the exempt list for Green Bay, so the Packers are without the back who ran for 929 yards last season.
Micah Parsons remains on the physically unable to perform list after recording 12 sacks last season.
Baker Mayfield took 34 of Tampa Bay’s 37 throws against Minnesota, with rookie Jalon Daniels taking three and throwing an interception.
Where Packers vs Buccaneers is decided
Green Bay have 146 rushing yards in three games. No other team is below 240. Jacobs’s absence explains it almost entirely.
The consequence is a passing game carrying everything: 124 attempts for 800 yards, and 53 throws in a 35-14 defeat to Atlanta.
Tampa Bay have conceded 13 sacks and score on 30% of red-zone trips. Green Bay’s front has seven sacks and should be able to use that.
Players to watch
- Jordan Love (GB, QB): 312 yards and two touchdowns from 53 attempts against Atlanta.
- Christian Watson (GB, WR): Seven catches for 96 yards and a score in Week 3.
- Baker Mayfield (TB, QB): 217 yards from 34 attempts against Minnesota.
- Emeka Egbuka (TB, WR): Five catches for 62 yards in Week 3.
How to watch Packers vs Buccaneers
Kickoff is 6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Raymond James Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Packers vs Buccaneers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 4 October |
| Venue | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV | DAZN / NFL Game Pass |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Packers vs Buccaneers prediction and score projection
Our Packers vs Buccaneers prediction is a Green Bay win, 23-20. Neither side convinces, but Tampa Bay are 0-3 and cannot keep their quarterback upright.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Packers vs Buccaneers FAQ
6.00pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Raymond James Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. Jacobs is on the exempt list. He ran for 929 yards last season, and Green Bay have managed 146 rushing yards in three games without him.
Green Bay, narrowly, despite playing away. The Packers are 1-2 and Tampa Bay 0-3.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change