Our Colts vs Commanders prediction covers the first London game of 2026, live and free on Channel 5 at 2.30pm. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 10 touchdowns and a 110.4 opponent passer rating. The Washington Commanders have allowed 11 and a 124.4 rating, the highest in the league. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium should see plenty of points.
Colts vs Commanders: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Colts vs Commanders: 2026 form so far
Neither defence has held anyone, which is a promising start for a Sunday afternoon in north London. The table sets each attack against what the other has allowed.
Colts attack against the Commanders defence
| Per game | Colts offence | Commanders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 190.0 | 280.3 |
| Rushing yards | 103.3 | 82.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 124.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Commanders attack against the Colts defence
| Per game | Commanders offence | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 182.0 | 276.0 |
| Rushing yards | 132.0 | 141.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 98.5 | 110.4 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Washington’s 124.4 opponent passer rating shapes this. Indianapolis are not far behind at 110.4, so the total matters more than the handicap.
Colts vs Commanders quarterback matchup
Marcus Mariota has seven touchdown passes from 47 attempts. Daniel Jones has three from 98.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 65/98, 611 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 80.8 rtg (3 games) |
| Commanders | Marcus Mariota | 19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg | 30/47, 294 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rtg (2 games) |
Colts vs Commanders injury report and team news
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, so the Colts travel without the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season.
Marcus Mariota started Washington’s 33-31 win over Seattle and threw three touchdowns without an interception.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Colts vs Commanders is decided
A 2.30pm kickoff is the friendliest slot of the round for a UK audience, and it has drawn the two leakiest secondaries on the card. Washington have conceded a 124.4 passer rating and still won last week.
Indianapolis come in off a 19-17 win over Houston in which Daniel Jones threw for 235 at an 82.5 rating. They have run 83 times for 310 yards, at only 3.7 a carry.
Neutral ground strips Washington of their crowd, which matters more than usual when a defence is this open. Even so, the Commanders have nine touchdowns to Indianapolis’s seven.
Players to watch
- Daniel Jones (IND, QB): 235 yards and a touchdown against Houston.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): Nine catches from 10 targets in Week 3.
- Marcus Mariota (WAS, QB): Three touchdown passes against Seattle at a 110.0 rating.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS, WR): Six catches for 77 yards and a score in Week 3.
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
Kickoff is 2.30pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is 9:30 AM ET. Channel 5 has it live and free to air, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport’s YouTube channel. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Colts vs Commanders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 2.30pm BST / 9:30 AM ET, Sunday 4 October |
| Venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London |
| TV | Channel 5 |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Commanders prediction and score projection
Our Colts vs Commanders prediction is a Washington win, 27-24. The Commanders score more and finish more of what they reach, and neither defence looks like settling it.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Colts vs Commanders FAQ
2.30pm BST on Sunday 4 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is 9:30 AM ET.
Yes. Channel 5 has it live, and it also streams free on Channel 5 Sport’s YouTube channel. Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. Channel 5 games are not subject to the UK blackout. That applies only to Sky’s two Sunday exclusive picks, which reach Game Pass 24 hours later.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, not Washington’s Northwest Stadium. It is the first of the 2026 London games.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change