Leicester City find themselves struggling in the Championship relegation zone, but there’s still reason to believe they will stay up.
Not only are the Foxes below fellow strugglers Portsmouth in the league table, but Pompey also have a game in hand.
| Position | Team | Games | W-D-L | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | West Brom | 41 | 11-12-18 | 45 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 40 | 10-12-18 | 42 |
| 22 | Leicester | 41 | 11-14-16 | 41 |
| 23 | Oxford | 41 | 9-14-18 | 41 |
| 24 | Sheff Wed | 41 | 1-10-30 | -5 |
To top it all off, Leicester had the chance to leave the bottom three last time out, but only managed to draw away at Sheffield Wednesday. And yet, there is a decent chance they stay up.
Why can Leicester survive double relegation?
Footballing context and points deduction
Firstly, the Foxes are only in the relegation zone due to the points deduction they suffered back in February. The board have appealed but there has been no official decision as of yet.
Of course, there is the threat of a second deduction that would all but secure relegation to League One. But since the outcome of the first one hasn’t been revealed, it’s all speculation for now.
On the pitch, however, things are different. Leicester have been poor and underperformed from the start. The appointment of Marti Cifuentes as head coach last summer was proven a bad choice that cost them margin for error when the points deduction came.
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As a parachute team that won the Championship title two years ago, the expectation was, at the very least, play-off contention this season. But instead of replicating their identity from the Enzo Maresca days, which would be a better fit for the current players, they went with a more conservative approach.
Now, Leicester’s poor run on and off the pitch has resulted in them sitting 22nd in the table. And having to lean on Gary Rowett in a ‘firefighter’ short-term job.
In fact, the unfavourable scenario and game states have forced him to mainly abandon his preferred fast and direct style. The Foxes have had more possession than the opponent in each of their last four Championship games.
For context, the last Rowett-led side to have seen more of the ball for such a long run was Millwall in January 2022. That time, they spent the same four matches – with just over half of possession: 50%, 51%, 51% and 50%. The average on the current Leicester span, however, is at 61%.
First team quality
Leicester are still good and deep enough to rally together a decent stretch to end the season. Starting with the coaching staff – Gary Rowett is a solid and dependable manager at Championship level.
Although he failed to bring the expected immediate impact he usually does when joining a club, they have been tough to beat. In nine games so far, he managed just one win – but only two losses and a whopping six draws.
And their main problem so far has been that they just can’t seem to hold on to results. They do find themselves in winning positions quite often. They dropped points after going up against Stoke City (2-2), Middlesbrough (1-1), Ipswich Town (1-1), Queens Park Rangers (1-3) and Preston North End (2-2). That’s over half of their games under Rowett.
It is by no means a good sign, but it would be even worse if they couldn’t even find a way to get in good positions to begin with. So their path back to winning games could be more complicated.
Injured players such as Aaron Ramsey and especially Jordan James returning in the near future would also help a lot. The midfield double pivot of former Tottenham Hotspur pair Oliver Skipp and Harry Winks leaves a lot to be desired going forward.
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Elsewhere, there is more attacking talent. Divine Mukasa has impressed since joining on loan from Manchester City. Abdul Fatawu has been one of their main (and only) stand-outs, racking up 16 goal involvements from the right wing.
A lot of players have underperformed, but do have the quality to decide a game in any given moment. Patson Daka has shown signs of life recently, while Jordan Ayew, Stephy Mavididi, Bobby De Cordova-Reid and Joe Aribo could all chip in as well.
Kind scheduling
Another important factor that Leicester fans will be paying attention to is the schedule from here on out.
They themselves will face a rather light one until the end of the season. Of course, they won just one point from the most winnable game there could have been, drawing against Sheffield Wednesday last time around.
Though it doesn’t get easier than that, their final five matches will be against Swansea City (H), Portsmouth (A), Hull City (H), Millwall (H) and Blackburn Rovers (A).
The Swans can mathematically still make the play-offs, but chances are as slim as they could be. Vitor Matos has been a great surprise in the league, but we’re approaching the stage in which mid-table sides don’t have much to play for. Swansea have also seen their performances drop and, like Leicester, are winless in the last four.
Portsmouth have been even worse than the Foxes. Of course, Leicester’s poor campaign stands out more, but that’s relative to expectations.
Pompey are enduring an eight-match winless run. They face Middlesbrough next and then will play their game in hand right before hosting the Foxes – but it’s against Ipswich.
Two losses to make it 10 winless games before a head-to-head match-up would be the dream scenario for Leicester fans. And, frankly, a very reasonable outcome.
But this time Gary Rowett’s men would have to make it count. They saw a favourable result elsewhere last Monday when Portsmouth and Oxford United drew, but needed a win at Hillsborough to get out of the relegation zone.
The Hull-Millwall sequence should be a tough one against higher-level opposition. But the two times Leicester faced teams from the top six under Rowett, they won points – drawing against Boro and Ipswich.
Blackburn at home to end the season could be a relatively simple task. All signs are pointing towards the Rovers being safe until then, which would leave them playing for nothing on final day.
The current relegation scenario has been narrowing down to Leicester, Portsmouth and Oxford. It won’t be easy and the Foxes surely must improve in order to maintain Championship status next season. But, barring a second points deduction, the more likely outcome is that the other two end up going down.