The Tyne-Wear derby makes its highly anticipated Premier League return as Newcastle host Sunderland at St. James’ Park.
Both sides are separated by just two points in the table and are coming off mixed runs of form, setting the stage for a fierce battle. Kick-off is at 12:00 on Sunday 22 March at St. James’ Park, and the intensity of this local rivalry means every moment will matter as both teams fight to climb the table.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on season-long attacking and defensive trends, here are our top betting recommendations for this derby. We’re particularly confident in backing goals based on Newcastle’s high chance creation and defensive vulnerabilities, while Sunderland’s resilience suggests value in the other main markets.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score – Yes | 10/11 @ Bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing both teams to score because Newcastle’s matches average nearly 3 goals per game, conceding as many as they score. Sunderland have been solid defensively but also create enough to trouble Newcastle, especially with Newcastle’s tendency to leave gaps at the back. Odds of 10/11 (52.4%) look fair given both sides’ season profiles. |
| Sunderland Draw No Bet | 3/1 @ Betfair (25.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Sunderland on the Draw No Bet line as they have shown defensive discipline, keeping more clean sheets than Newcastle and conceding fewer goals overall. The price of 3/1 (25.0%) offers strong value if they can frustrate Newcastle’s attack and nick a result. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Newcastle vs Sunderland match odds
How both teams head into Newcastle vs Sunderlnd
Newcastle United’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been competitive but inconsistent, with the club sitting around 9th on 42 points from 30 matches (1.4 points per game). Their record stands at 12 wins, 6 draws and 12 defeats.
They have scored 43 goals (1.43 per game) and conceded 43 (1.43 per game), giving a perfectly balanced goal difference, highlighting a balanced but flawed side. Underlying data shows an xG of 44.9 and xGA of 35.9, suggesting attacking output slightly exceeds defensive solidity.
Individually, Bruno Guimarães leads league scoring with 9 goals, while Anthony Gordon has 16 in all competitions, underlining shared attacking responsibility.
Overall, Eddie Howe’s side remain competitive in mid-table but now don’t have European commitments to derail their league campaign.
Sunderland’s 2025/26 Premier League return has been solid, with the club sitting 13th on 40 points from 30 matches (1.33 points per game). Their record is roughly 10 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats, reflecting mid-table consistency.
They have scored 30 goals (1 per game) and conceded 35 (1.16 per game), giving a −5 goal difference. Underlying data shows an xGA of 33.8, indicating a relatively organised defence.
Individually, Brian Brobbey leads with 5 league goals, highlighting a lack of a prolific scorer.
Régis Le Bris has built a competitive, defensively structured side, but limited attacking output and inconsistency prevent a push towards the European places.
Newcastle team news
Newcastle head into the Tyne–Wear derby against Sunderland with a few key absentees. Midfielder Sandro Tonali, injured in the recent Champions League loss to Barcelona, is expected to miss the game.
Teenager Lewis Miley has also been ruled out of both the Barcelona tie and the derby due to fitness issues.
Manager Eddie Howe will otherwise assess a largely available squad but will be without those players for this important Premier League fixture.
Sunderland team news
Sunderland face Newcastle United hampered by defensive absences. Key centre‑back Dan Ballard looks likely to miss the Tyne‑Wear derby with a hamstring problem sustained against Brighton, leaving Regis Le Bris short at the back.
Goalkeeper Robin Roefs remains out with a hamstring issue, meaning Swedish stand‑in Melker Ellborg could retain his place.
Sunderland have also been dealing with a broader injury crisis, with several first‑team players sidelined recently, compounding squad selection headaches ahead of this crucial Premier League fixture.
Season Form & Standings
Newcastle edge Sunderland by two points and four places, but both teams are looking to push on from mid-table. Newcastle have scored and conceded the same number of goals (43), while Sunderland have been slightly more disciplined at the back, conceding just 35 in their 30 games.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 9 | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 42 |
| Sunderland | 13 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 40 |
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
These sides have only met twice in recent years – both winning one apiece, including Sunderland’s 1-0 home win earlier this campaign. Prior to that, the last time the teams met was in 2016, with Sunderland holding the edge over this time.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 06/01/24 | Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| 20/03/16 | Newcastle 1-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| 25/10/15 | Sunderland 3-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 05/04/15 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 21/12/14 | Newcastle 0-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
Conclusion: Can Newcastle’s Attack Overcome Sunderland’s Defence?
This derby is shaping up to be a true test of Newcastle’s attacking output against Sunderland’s defensive strength. With both teams having something to prove and a strong record of goals in Newcastle games, there’s every chance this will be a lively contest. Our top tip is Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (52.4%) with Bet365, which looks a strong value bet based on the numbers and the nature of this fierce local rivalry.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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