Argentina launched the defence of their World Cup trophy in style after Lionel Messi scored a hat-trick in a 3-0 win over Algeria in their opening game.
Argentina, who are looking to become the first country to retain the World Cup since Brazil in 1962, got off to the perfect start to the 2026 edition as Messi equalled Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup goalscoring record of 16 goals in what was his 200th appearance for La Albiceleste.
The spine of that victorious squad from the 2022 World Cup remains in place alongside head coach Lionel Scaloni. Tougher tests are to come, with Austria up next, but the Algeria win was certainly an early statement of intent from the holders.
Read more: FIFA World Cup Draw: Find out who will play who in 2026
Argentina odds to win the World Cup
At the time of writing, Argentina are the fifth favourites to lift the World Cup trophy in 2026, just ahead of their CONMEBOL rivals Brazil, but behind the likes of France, Spain, England, and Portugal.
It’s evident from these odds of 8/1 that the bookmakers consider Argentina one of the key players at the tournament and as such, it would be considered a major shock if they don’t reach the latter stages.
On paper, their squad is strong. Lionel Messi, who sparkled with an opening game hat-trick, is supported by the likes of Lisandro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and Enzo Fernandes.
Messi, who turns 39 during the tournament, will no doubt need to conjure up more moments of magic if the South Americans are to repeat the feat of 2022, and current signs are that he will do just that.
At odds of 8/1, Argentina have been handed an implied probability of 11.11% of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Argentina odds to win Group J
Argentina have been drawn in Group J, which is certainly an interesting group with the inclusion of a strong Austria, alongside Algeria sides along with newcomers Jordan, taking place in the tournament for first time.
Although both Austria and Algeria boast a handful of top-tier players in their squads, the reality is that they should be no match for Albiceleste – who would go on to defeat Algeria 3-0 – in this group while the match against Jordan should result in a very comfortable victory.
Topping the group is unsurprisingly the expectation for the holders, but don’t forget that they dropped points to Saudi Arabia in their first game of the last tournament. They could’ve been handed an easier draw than this, but top spot is still the most likely outcome.
Argentina stage of elimination odds
A group stage elimination feels almost impossible for Argentina and certainly less likely than them winning the whole tournament this year. The Round of 16 is the favourite in the market for Argentina’s exit, but in reality they’ll be expecting to go further than that. You can get odds of 7/2 on a quarter-final finish with bet365.
| Stage of Elimination | Odds from Bet365 |
|---|---|
| Round of 16 | 10/3 |
| Quarter-final | 4/1 |
| Round of 32 | 2/1 |
| Semi-final | 9/2 |
| Runner-up | 9/1 |
| Winner | 10/1 |
| Group stage | 18/1 |
Argentina World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds
You won’t be surprised to hear that Lionel Messi is considered to be Argentina’s most likely candidate to lift the Golden Boot at this summer’s World Cup, which now already seems a certainly after his opening game hat-trick against Algeria.
Messi is now level with Kylian Mbappe at the top of the betting as he not only targets Golden Boot glory, but now only needs one more goal to create a new World Cup goalscoring record.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
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