Chelsea have fallen away from Premier League title contention, but must continue battling to make sure they finish in the top four.
Read on to see their current outright odds for the 2025-26 Premier League season, from title chances to top four hopes.
Chelsea odds to win the 2025-26 Premier League: Outright odds and predictions
Chelsea started the season brightly but showed too much inconsistency to be seen as serious title contenders.
It’s been another tumultuous campaign at Stamford Bridge, with Enzo Maresca departing and being replaced by Liam Rosenior. However, the latter has taken to the role well, with four wins and a draw on the board from five league games so far, as well as progression through the FA Cup fourth round and qualification for the Champions League last 16.
Chelsea still have odds of 500/1 to win the Premier League this season, but that represents just a 1% implied probability, which is hardly surprising given they’re 13 points adrift of London rivals Arsenal.
| Team | BetMGM odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 7/20 | 74.1% |
| Man City | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Aston Villa | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Man Utd | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Liverpool | 150/1 | 1% |
| Chelsea | 500/1 | 1% |
Chelsea odds to finish in the 2025-26 Premier League top four: Outright odds and predictions
A top-five finish is highly likely to be enough to secure Champions League football next season, just as it was last campaign. However, that is not guaranteed, so top four must be the aim.
Chelsea are fifth at the time of writing, a point behind Man Utd in fourth. They have odds of 27/20 to break the top four, which represents a 42.6% probability.
| Team | BetMGM odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 21/50 | 70.4% |
| Man Utd | 4/5 | 55.6% |
| Liverpool | 11/10 | 47.6% |
| Chelsea | 27/20 | 42.6% |
Chelsea odds to finish in the 2025-26 Premier League top six: Outright odds and predictions
Chelsea have only failed to finish in the top six of the Premier League twice in the 21st century: a 10th-placed finish in 2015-16 and then 12th in 2022-23.
It was a sixth-placed finish in 2023-24 that saw Chelsea qualify for the Uefa Conference League, eventually winning the competition last season to complete the set.
Finishing in the top six is typically enough to guarantee European football; in fact, it’s been 12 years since a sixth-placed Premier League side missed out. The last to suffer that fate were Everton in 2012–13, when domestic cup winners Swansea City and Wigan Athletic qualified through their trophies despite finishing ninth and being relegated, respectively.
Chelsea are expected to finish in the top six, and their odds of 2/13 reflect an 86.7% probability.
| Team | BetMGM odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1/40 | 97.6% |
| Man Utd | 1/10 | 90.9% |
| Liverpool | 1/10 | 90.9% |
| Chelsea | 2/13 | 86.7% |
Chelsea Golden Boot odds: Outright odds and predictions
It’s been 15 years since a Chelsea player last won the Golden Boot, when Didier Drogba took the crown in 2009-10 with 29 goals. A year earlier, 19 goals was enough for Chelsea teammate Nicolas Anelka to win. Drogba is one of nine players to have won the Golden Boot more than once, having also won it in 2006-07. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is the only other Chelsea player to win the Golden Boot, doing so in 2000-01.
Cole Palmer has been Chelsea’s top scorer in each of the past two seasons. He netted 22 goals in 2023-24, with only Erling Haaland (27) managing more across the campaign. Last season, Palmer’s numbers dropped to 15, but that was still five more than any other Chelsea player.
Palmer began the current campaign at 20/1 to win the Golden Boot. Despite injuries, he is Chelsea’s most likely winner the odds now, having netted eight goals in 15 appearances so far, which is two adrift of top scorer Joao Pedro.
Both of them are way off the pace of Haaland, though, with the Man City striker on 22 goals.
| Player | BetMGM odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 1/18 | 94.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 50/1 | 2% |
| Cole Palmer | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Joao Pedro | 100/1 | 1% |
Chelsea PFA Player of the Year odds: Outright odds and predictions
Cole Palmer made it to the top six for the 2024-25 PFA Player of the Year award, which was won by Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. Palmer also had a good chance of winning in 2023-24, but on that occasion, it was Phil Foden who took home the honours.
N’Golo Kante was the last Chelsea player to win the PFA Player of the Year, doing so in 2016-17. He also won the Football Writers’ Association’s Footballer of the Year and Premier League Player of the Season. Eden Hazard also scooped that trio of trophies two years earlier in 2014-15.
No Chelsea players are currently in the mix to win the PFA Player of the Year in 2025-26, in a market that’s dominated by Man City and Arsenal players. Declan Rice and Erling Haaland top the pile, followed by Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes as an outside bet.
| Player | BetMGM odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | 3/5 | 62.5% |
| Erling Haaland | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Chelsea ins and outs
Chelsea had another very busy transfer window. The Blues have already spent over £200m on new signings, mostly bolstering their attack. Joao Pedro, Liam Delap and Jamie Gittens are the big-name arrivals, with Estevao also finally making his move after a deal was agreed in 2024. Chelsea also added Dario Essugo to their midfield and Mamadou Sarr and Jorrel Hato to their defence.
Attackers Noni Madueke, Joao Felix, and Christopher Nkunku all left permanently, while Nicolas Jackson – eventually – completed a loan switch to Bayern Munich. Goalkeepers Kepa Arrizabalaga, Djordje Petrovic, and Marcus Bettinelli all moved on, as did the likes of Armando Broja, Ben Chilwell, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and Carney Chukwuemeka.
It was a surprisingly quiet January window in terms of incoming signings for Chelsea. However, the Blues did move some loan players around, including Axel Disasi and Tyrique George, who joined West Ham and Everton, respectively.