Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction covers a winless team with one of the best pass rushes in football. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Houston Texans have 11 sacks in three games and have lost all three, by five, 14 and two points. The Dallas Cowboys convert 57.1% on third down. NRG Stadium hosts a genuine test of whether defence alone travels.
Cowboys vs Texans: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Cowboys vs Texans: 2026 form so far
A 1-2 team that scores and an 0-3 team that defends. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side has allowed.
Cowboys attack against the Texans defence
| Per game | Cowboys offence | Texans allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.0 | 238.7 |
| Rushing yards | 94.3 | 86.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Passer rating | 107.2 | 104.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 57.1% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 42.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 3.7 |
Texans attack against the Cowboys defence
| Per game | Texans offence | Cowboys allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.3 | 207.3 |
| Rushing yards | 84.7 | 179.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Passer rating | 87.3 | 121.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.4% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 69.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 0.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Dallas have conceded 539 rushing yards at 5.0 a carry. Houston average 3.6, which is why that weakness may go unpunished.
Cowboys vs Texans quarterback matchup
C.J. Stroud has thrown 120 passes without an interception. Dak Prescott has thrown one in 105.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 25/40, 276 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 91.3 rtg | 73/105, 730 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, 107.2 rtg (3 games) |
| Texans | C.J. Stroud | 16/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.6 rtg | 72/120, 794 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 88.0 rtg (3 games) |
Cowboys vs Texans injury report and team news
Will Anderson Jr. has four sacks in three games, including two and a half at Indianapolis.
Javonte Williams ran 19 times for 98 yards and a touchdown for Dallas against Baltimore.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Cowboys vs Texans is decided
Houston’s 11 sacks are behind only Minnesota and Detroit. Dallas have conceded three all season, so something has to give.
The Cowboys’ defence is the weak half: 539 rushing yards allowed at 5.0 a carry and a 121.3 opponent passer rating.
Houston have not passed 20 points since Week 1. Until that changes, their defensive record keeps producing narrow defeats rather than wins.
Players to watch
- Dak Prescott (DAL, QB): 276 yards against Baltimore, seven touchdowns to one interception this season.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR): Seven catches for 112 yards in Week 3.
- Will Anderson Jr. (HOU, DE): Two and a half sacks at Indianapolis, four in three games.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU, QB): 794 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
How to watch Cowboys vs Texans
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday 4 October at NRG Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CTV coverage is regional, so the fixture on your local CTV station depends where you are, with TSN alongside it and RDS in French. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Cowboys vs Texans |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Cowboys vs Texans prediction and score projection
Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction is a Dallas win, 27-24, rated 2/5. It is among the least confident calls on the card.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 4 game the same way. This one crosses the conferences, so the AFC Championship odds and the NFC Championship odds are both worth a look as the season develops.
Cowboys vs Texans FAQ
Dallas, narrowly, despite playing away. The Cowboys are 1-2 and Houston 0-3.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday 4 October, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT.
CTV coverage is regional, so the fixture on your local CTV station depends where you are, with TSN alongside it and RDS in French. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada.
Eleven in three games, behind only Minnesota and Detroit.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change