The World Cup 2026 Group D finale lands at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM PT, with hosts the United States already through and Turkey already out.
Our Turkey vs United States prediction is shaped by the standings as much as the form. Mauricio Pochettino’s side top the group on six points with a +5 goal difference after a 4-1 dismantling of Paraguay in Inglewood and a 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle. Turkey have lost both matches without scoring — 2-0 to Australia in Vancouver, then 1-0 at home in California to Paraguay — and head into the final group game with nothing on the table beyond pride and a finishing position.
bet365 prices the United States at -111, Turkey at +250, and the draw at +310, with Over 2.5 goals at +100. The market is reading this as a heavy USA tilt, but the price is shorter than you might expect for an eliminated side facing a host with top spot already banked.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Turkey at 27%, the draw at 22%, and USA at 52%. Full breakdown below.
Turkey vs USMNT: Best Bets & Predictions
The angle here is straightforward: USA are clear favorites, but Pochettino has every reason to rotate, which keeps the Turkey side alive on a draw line and pushes value into the goalscorer and over markets.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States to Win | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | USA have scored six and conceded one across two games, and Turkey haven’t put a goal on the board yet at this tournament. Even a rotated XI carries the better forward line on the night. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +100 @ bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | USA are averaging three goals a game in this group. Turkey have leaked five across two and now need to chase to finish with anything off the floor. |
| Folarin Balogun Anytime Goalscorer | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Balogun already has two goals in 161 minutes at the tournament, with an xG of 0.88 and three shots on target. The lead striker for the hosts against a back line still searching for a clean sheet. |
| Correct Score: Turkey 1-3 United States | +2800 @ bet365 (3.4%) | ⭐⭐ | USA control with the front line, Turkey grab a consolation chasing the game. Lines up with the Over 2.5 and BTTS legs, speculative price for a multi. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The market is already short on BTTS Yes for a reason — Turkey are out and have to push, USA have shipped a goal to Paraguay already. An open second half tilts this way. |
Our approach: lean on Balogun as the anchor, add Over 2.5 as a natural parlay leg, and let the BTTS-Yes price ride alongside if you want a third leg.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi has USA as the favourite. Traders are pricing Turkey at 27% to win, the draw at 22%, and USA at 52%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Turkey at 1% to qualify from Group D and 1% to win it, with USA at 99% / 99%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 99% | 1% | 7% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| USA | 1% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 16% | 5% | 5% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
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Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Standings
USA have run the group on a +5 goal difference and sit clear at the top heading into the final matchday. Turkey are pointless, scoreless, and already eliminated — the seeding for the third-place table is the only thing left to play for here.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| Australia | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| Turkey | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Folarin Balogun (United States): Two goals in 161 minutes with an xG of 0.88 and three shots on target across the group stage. The lead striker for the hosts is the highest-percentage anytime-scorer pick on the board.
- Alex Freeman (United States): A goal and an assist for the right-back across both group games, every minute played, and an xG of 0.80 from set-piece and overlap involvement. Pochettino’s most productive attacking outlet from deep.
- Kenan Yıldız (Turkey): Turkey’s most dangerous attacking midfielder by xG (0.95) over the group, despite being held to a single shot on target. With Turkey forced to chase, the Juventus playmaker gets the freest licence he’s had so far.
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey): Striker with the second-highest xG in the squad (0.61) and a forward role that opens up against a USA back line that may be rotated. At +275 anytime scorer, the longest of the realistic Turkey routes to the BTTS leg.
Head-to-Head
This is the first competitive meeting between the two nations in over a decade and the first ever at a World Cup. A friendly in Hartford in 2014 ended 2-1 to USA — a useful reference point but no more than that, given full turnover in both squads and coaching staff since.
Recent Form
United States — W W (Group D so far)
- Jun 19, 2026: United States 2-0 Australia (W)
- Jun 12, 2026: United States 4-1 Paraguay (W)
Two wins from two, six goals scored, the only goal conceded coming from Paraguay’s late consolation in the opener. The Stars and Stripes have controlled both games from the front and look the strongest of the three CONCACAF hosts so far.
Turkey — L L (Group D so far)
- Jun 19, 2026: Turkey 0-1 Paraguay (L)
- Jun 14, 2026: Australia 2-0 Turkey (L)
Two defeats, no goals scored, and a side that looked short of ideas in the final third across 180 minutes. The injury and form question marks have piled up, and the USMNT will fancy this regardless of how heavily Pochettino chooses to rotate.
Turkey vs USMNT Prediction
USA top spot is already locked, which complicates the team-sheet but not the result. Turkey have nothing to play for beyond personal pride and have been the weakest side in the group on the evidence so far. A USA win with goals at both ends is the cleanest read, with Balogun at +162 with bet365 the standout single-leg pick. See more US-facing tips on our soccer predictions page.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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