Our Premier League winner predictions tracker shows what Polymarket is saying about the 2025-26 title race. The market has now resolved against everything except Arsenal: the Gunners are 2025-26 Premier League champions after Manchester City’s 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on Tuesday May 19 took City’s maximum to 81 points, four short of Arsenal’s 82. It is Arsenal’s first league title since 2003-04, the Invincibles season. Polymarket’s Yes shares on Arsenal trade at or near 100 cents heading into the final day, with the remaining trading volume settling positions before the official market resolution.
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05; Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Arsenal sit on 82 points from 37 games (+43 GD, 69 goals scored). Manchester City finished GW37 on 78 from 37 (+43 GD, 76 GF) after the Bournemouth draw, with a final-day Aston Villa fixture still to play that no longer carries title implications. The Polymarket Yes price for Arsenal has compressed against the resolution outcome; the only remaining price action is the wind-down to confirmation.
For US soccer fans and futures readers, tracking the outright winner market provides the clearest live picture of how the season ended. Rather than relying on static sportsbook odds, our Premier League winner predictions tracker uses live data from Polymarket to show the resolution price as the market closes out.
Current Premier League winner predictions
The outright winner market was the most heavily traded futures event of the English soccer season. The live Polymarket embed below shows the resolution state for the 2025-26 Premier League trophy.
With more than $320 million in total trading volume since launch, this was one of the most liquid and transparent reads on title probability available anywhere. Prices have now compressed to the resolution outcome with Arsenal confirmed as champions.
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How to read the Premier League Polymarket market
If you are new to prediction markets, the prices above work differently from traditional sportsbook odds. On Polymarket, you are buying shares in an outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the market’s implied probability of that event happening.
Arsenal Yes shares now trade close to 100 cents because the title is mathematically settled. A holder of Yes shares at 86 cents from earlier in the month will see those shares pay out at $1.00 once the market officially resolves after the final-day fixtures on May 24. Everything else on the board has converged to near-zero. The market is doing the work it was built to do: pricing in the result before the trophy is presented.
What the market is saying about the title race
The Polymarket data tells the same story the table does, with the price now confirming what the fixture list had been hinting at all spring. Arsenal sit on 82 points from 37 games (+43 GD, 69 GF); Manchester City finished their 37 games on 78 (+43 GD, 76 GF) after the Bournemouth draw, with the final-day Villa fixture no longer carrying title weight.
Traders priced the resolution in stages. Arsenal moved to 86 cents after the Burnley win on Monday May 18, then converged toward 100 once the City result at Bournemouth removed the only path that could have flipped the table. The compression is sharp because the maths is no longer probabilistic: City’s maximum is 81, Arsenal’s current total is 82.
The closing-day fixtures — Crystal Palace vs Arsenal and Manchester City vs Aston Villa — will determine final goal totals and tiebreakers, but the trophy itself is already off the board.
Top teams in the Premier League winner market
Champions: Arsenal
Arsenal end a 22-year wait for a league title, their first since the 2003-04 Invincibles. Five points clear with one game still to play, control of their own destiny long since secured, and the closing-day fixture is a trip to a Crystal Palace side already safe with nothing to play for beyond pride. Viktor Gyokeres, signed in January, has given the attack a more direct edge, and the squad has been settled all spring.
You can follow Arsenal’s closing fixture on our Premier League schedule page, or see the full title narrative on the Premier League title odds page.
Runners-up: Manchester City
Manchester City finish second on 78 points after the Bournemouth draw on May 19. Pep Guardiola’s side host Aston Villa on the final day with the title decided and a top-four place already locked. The closing fixture is about pride and the goals tiebreaker, not the trophy.
The rest of the field
Manchester United finish third on 68 points after a 3-2 home win over Nottingham Forest on May 17. Aston Villa hold fourth on 62, ahead of Liverpool in fifth on 59. The top four (Arsenal, City, United, Villa) are all locked into next season’s Champions League; Liverpool take the Europa League spot. The only remaining open European place is sixth (UEFA Conference League), where Bournemouth (56) sit ahead of Brighton (53) heading into the final day. All other contenders trade at trace levels on the outright winner market — the contest there was always Arsenal versus City.
Which teams shortened and drifted?
- Resolved to Yes: Arsenal. From a multi-month chase through the title race, the Burnley win on May 18 took the Gunners to 82 and pushed the price toward 86 cents. The Bournemouth result on May 19 finished the job. Yes shares now trade close to 100.
- Resolved to No: Manchester City. The Bournemouth draw closed the path. Yes shares have compressed to near-zero; only final-day fixture resolution remains.
How to use Polymarket for Premier League title predictions
Polymarket allows you to trade your soccer knowledge dynamically rather than locking in a static futures bet. Traders who held Arsenal Yes shares from earlier in the season at lower prices — 50 cents in February, 70 cents in April, 86 after the Burnley win — can sell into the resolution price now or wait for official settlement after May 24.
The 2026-27 market will open on Polymarket once the current season formally resolves. Bookmark this page; we will reframe it for the next title race when the new market goes live.
FAQs
Polymarket tracked the title race within a few cents of the final outcome for most of the spring, with Arsenal moving from around 70 cents after their Easter wins to 86 after the Burnley result on May 18 and close to 100 once City failed to win at Bournemouth on May 19. The aggregated, financially-backed crowd was a more reliable read than most static sportsbook odds across the same stretch.
Yes. Unlike traditional futures bets where your money is locked until the end of the season, Polymarket allows you to sell your shares at any time. Traders who held Arsenal Yes shares from before the title was settled can sell into the current resolution price now or wait for official settlement after the final day.
The next-season market typically opens shortly after the current season formally resolves. The 2025-26 market settles after the final-day fixtures on May 24; the 2026-27 outright should follow within days. We will reframe this page for the new title race when the next market goes live.