Turkey and Paraguay meet at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Friday, June 19 at 11:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM CT / 8:00 PM PT, and the loser is pushed to the brink of World Cup 2026 elimination.
Both sides lost their openers. Turkey were beaten 2-0 by Australia in Vancouver, undone by an early goal and a thin attacking return. Paraguay were dismantled 4-1 by the United States in Inglewood, three down at half-time and never in the contest. With USA and Australia heading into a likely points-share in the same Group D window, the Crescent-Stars and La Albirroja both arrive at matchday 2 needing a win to stay alive.
The market has Turkey as a clear favorite. bet365 prices Vincenzo Montella’s side at +100 (50.0% implied) with Paraguay drifting out to +300, a gap that reflects both the squad-quality difference and the manner of each side’s MD1 defeat. Below, we break down the best bets, the prediction-market read, and where this Group D scrap is likely to be decided.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Turkey at 48%, the draw at 29%, and Paraguay at 25%. Full breakdown below.
Turkey vs Paraguay: Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result: Turkey | +100 @ bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay shipped four against the USA and looked structurally outmatched. Turkey’s attack misfired in Vancouver but the Arda Güler–Hakan Çalhanoğlu axis is a level above anything La Albirroja can put on the pitch. |
| Correct Score: 1-0 Turkey | +550 @ bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐ | Turkey have the better attack but Paraguay are likely to sit deep after the SoFi mauling. A tight, low-scoring win is the cleanest read on a game where neither team wants to lose first. |
| Anytime Goalscorer: Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey) | +220 @ bet365 (31.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Turkey’s leading attacker from qualifying. Five goals in the road to North America and the man Montella turns to when chances dry up. |
| Total Goals: Under 2.5 | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay’s instinct will be to tighten up after the SoFi mauling, and Turkey have looked uncomfortable when forced to break a low block. One goal of breathing room may be enough. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐ | Paraguay rarely score in matches where they sit deep, and a points-driven game plan from Daniel Garnero is now the obvious read. |
Our headline call is Turkey to win at +100, paired with Under 2.5 goals (-150) for a low-scoring decisive afternoon. The pre-tournament numbers say Turkey were the stronger side coming in and Paraguay’s MD1 collapse only widens that gap.
Odds and lines correct at the time of writing via bet365. Bonus Bet offers and operator promotions are subject to operator T&Cs.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi has Turkey as the favourite. Traders are pricing Turkey at 48% to win, the draw at 29%, and Paraguay at 25%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Turkey at 52% to qualify from Group D and 7% to win it, with Paraguay at 32% / 2%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 49% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Paraguay | 68% | 25% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Group D — 2026 FIFA World Cup
| Pos | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Turkey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
USA top the group on goal difference after the 4-1 win over Paraguay, with Australia level on points behind them. Both Turkey and Paraguay sit pointless and a loss here on matchday 2 would leave the loser needing help on the final day. For the latest picture, check the full World Cup 2026 schedule.
Potential Match-Winners
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey): Five goals in qualifying, the most of any Turkish player on the road to North America. Galatasaray’s wide forward is the obvious go-to when Montella needs a moment of quality off the left.
- Arda Güler (Turkey): Real Madrid’s 20-year-old playmaker is the creative pulse of this side. Quiet against Australia but quick to react to a missed beat — Turkey’s chance-creation comes through him.
- Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay): The Torino striker scored Paraguay’s only goal against the United States and remains the cleanest finisher in Garnero’s squad. Priced at +333 to find the net here.
- Miguel Almirón (Paraguay): The Atlanta United winger gives La Albirroja their best line-breaking option. Asked to do more from deeper positions in MD1; expect him a half-step higher up.
Head-to-Head
Turkey and Paraguay have never met in a senior competitive fixture. Their only friendly meeting finished 0-0 in June 1995.
Recent Form in competitive fixtures
Turkey: L W W D W W
- Oct 14, 2026: Turkey 4-1 Georgia (W)
- Nov 15, 2026: Turkey 2-0 Bulgaria (W)
- Nov 18, 2025: Spain 2-2 Turkey (D)
- Mar 26, 2026: Turkey 1-0 Romania (W)
- Mar 31, 2026: Kosovo 0-1 Turkey (W)
- Jun 14, 2026: Australia 2-0 Turkey (L)
Turkey come into matchday 2 having lost their opener in Vancouver, the only blemish on an otherwise productive qualifying campaign that produced eight goals in a single window against Bulgaria and Georgia. The 6-0 home loss to Spain in September is the outlier — a result Montella has spoken about as a one-off — but it does flag what can happen when Turkey are pressed by a top-tier side. Against Paraguay, the test is different: a structured low block and the need to break it down at pace.
Paraguay: L W D L W
- Jun 6, 2025: Paraguay 2-0 Uruguay (W)
- Jun 11, 2025: Brazil 1-0 Paraguay (L)
- Sep 5, 2025: Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador (D)
- Sep 10, 2025: Peru 0-1 Paraguay (W)
- Jun 13, 2026: United States 4-1 Paraguay (L)
Paraguay arrived in California having qualified through the CONMEBOL route and were then beaten 4-1 by the United States at SoFi Stadium, three goals down inside 45 minutes. Sanabria’s late strike was the only positive on a night when Garnero’s back four was repeatedly opened up. The bounce-back has to be defensive first.
Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction
Two pointless teams, one straightforward read. Turkey have the better attacking talent, the more reliable creator in Arda Güler, and a Paraguay back line that conceded four goals against an organized but not exceptional United States. Take Turkey at +100 with bet365, lean toward Under 2.5 in a game neither side can afford to throw bodies forward in, and Kerem Aktürkoğlu (+220) is the goalscorer pick if you want one. Kick-off is Saturday, June 20 at 12:00 AM ET from Levi’s Stadium. For the wider tournament picture, see our World Cup 2026 outright odds and our preview of United States vs Australia, the other Group D matchday-2 fixture.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER