The 2026 FIFA World Cup brings Sweden vs Tunisia on Sunday, June 14 at 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM PT, a Group F opener at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Our Sweden vs Tunisia prediction leans on the gap in attacking talent between these two, even in a group where Netherlands and Japan are the headline names. Sweden carry the more dangerous front line, and that is the thread that runs through the markets here.
This is also a chance for both sides to get points on the board before the heavyweights of Group F come into view. An opener like this can be tense, with neither team wanting to lose first, and that shapes how we read the goal lines.
bet365 prices Sweden at -106 to win, with the draw at +230 and Tunisia out at +300. That is a clear favorite without being a runaway, which tells you the books still rate Tunisia’s organization and ability to frustrate.
Sweden vs Tunisia: Best Bets & Predictions
We side with Sweden, but the price and the cagey nature of openers point us toward a low-scoring, controlled win rather than a goal rush.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden to Win | -106 @ bet365 (51%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Sweden carry the sharper cutting edge in the final third and should have enough to break down a disciplined Tunisia side. |
| Correct Score: 1-0 Sweden | +550 @ bet365 (15%) | ⭐⭐ | Tunisia defend in numbers and rarely concede in bunches, so a single Sweden goal settling a tight opener is very much in play. |
| Viktor Gyökeres anytime scorer | Check bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Gyökeres scored 14 Premier League goals for Arsenal this season and is Sweden’s most reliable route to a goal. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -163 @ bet365 (61%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Tournament openers tend to be careful, and Tunisia’s low block points to a game with fewer clear chances. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -134 @ bet365 (57%) | ⭐⭐ | Tunisia carry little goal threat from open play, so backing Sweden to keep this clean fits the low-scoring read. |
Our approach: Anchor on Sweden to win, then lean Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score No for a correlated play on a controlled, low-scoring opener.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Match-specific prediction market pricing for Sweden vs Tunisia has not yet surfaced at time of writing. Kalshi and Polymarket are listing World Cup futures, but neither has posted a line on this Group F opener yet, so the sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match.
Kalshi is the platform US users can fund and trade today, while Polymarket is currently early-access only for US accounts ahead of its post-QCX rollout. We will update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Group F — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Group F pairs Sweden and Tunisia with Netherlands and Japan. The table below reflects the draw rather than any played fixtures, with everyone level on zero before the opener. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Japan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden): The Arsenal striker scored 14 Premier League goals in his first season in England, capping a title-winning campaign, and he is the player most likely to settle a tight game in Sweden’s favor.
- Anthony Elanga (Sweden): The Newcastle winger gives Sweden genuine pace in behind, and his running can stretch a Tunisia side that wants to defend deep and compact.
- Ellyes Skhiri (Tunisia): The Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder logged 34 appearances across competitions this season and is the metronome Tunisia build around, breaking up play and setting the tempo.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia): Burnley’s combative midfielder contributed one goal and three assists in 24 Premier League games this season, and his energy is central to Tunisia’s hopes of carrying a threat forward.
Head-to-Head
Sweden hold the edge in a sparse history, winning two and drawing one of the four meetings, all of them friendlies. Tunisia’s only victory came in their most recent encounter, a 1-0 home win back in 2003, so this is the first time the pair have met with anything on the line.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2003 | Tunisia 1-0 Sweden | Friendly |
| Feb 10, 1999 | Tunisia 0-1 Sweden | Friendly |
| Apr 22, 1992 | Tunisia 0-1 Sweden | Friendly |
| Feb 28, 1976 | Tunisia 1-1 Sweden | Friendly |
Form Coming Into the Tournament
Sweden arrive with one of the more dangerous attacking pairings in the field, built around Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak. The supporting cast leans on Premier League and top-European experience, from Victor Lindelöf at the back to Anthony Elanga out wide, and the talent on paper is why the markets make them clear favorites for this opener.
Tunisia come in as a well-drilled side that has long made organization and defensive structure its calling card. The Eagles of Carthage are a regular fixture at this level and are at their most dangerous when they sit deep, stay compact and pick their moments to spring forward through the likes of Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri.
Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction
This has the feel of a tight, controlled opener rather than a comfortable Sweden romp. Their extra quality in attack should be the difference, but Tunisia’s discipline points to a low-scoring game decided by a single moment, which is why the goal markets appeal. Our lean is Sweden edging it without the floodgates opening, so back Sweden to win at -106 with bet365. For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, you can read our full bet365 review before you bet, and our Mexico vs South Africa preview covers the tournament opener. For more of our latest calls, see our soccer predictions. Kick-off is 10:00 PM ET at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER