Our Patriots vs Jaguars prediction sets the league’s meanest defense against a quarterback coming off his worst afternoon of the season. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The New England Patriots have conceded one touchdown in two games and have not allowed a red-zone score all season. The Jacksonville Jaguars threw four touchdown passes in the opener and none at Denver. Both are 1-1, and the gap between their best and worst days is the story.
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
New England PatriotsSquawka49%Market41%▲ Value
Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka51%Market59%▼ Slight laySquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Patriots vs Jaguars: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
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Patriots vs Jaguars: 2026 form so far
Two 1-1 records with wildly different shapes. The table puts each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Jaguars defense
| Per game | Patriots offense | Jaguars allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 236.5 |
| Rushing yards | 122.5 | 95.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 63.1 | 97.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.1% | 26.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 2.5 |
Jaguars attack against the Patriots defense
| Per game | Jaguars offense | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 203.5 | 166.0 |
| Rushing yards | 110.5 | 94.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 110.6 | 78.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 17.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.5 | 3.0 |
Read these as a 2-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New England’s defensive numbers are the outlier here: one touchdown conceded, 17.4% on third down allowed, and nothing from any red-zone trip. Their own passing game is the weak point, with four interceptions and a 63.1 rating.
Patriots vs Jaguars injury report and team news
Drake Maye completed 14 of 22 for 208 yards against Pittsburgh but has thrown four interceptions in two games at a 63.1 rating.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 189 with no touchdowns and an interception at Denver, a week after four touchdown passes against Cleveland.
Jacksonville’s defense recorded no sacks at Denver after five in the opener.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
New England PatriotsJacksonville JaguarsWhere Patriots vs Jaguars is decided
One touchdown conceded in two games is the number that frames this. New England have held opponents to 17.4% on third down and have not allowed a score from any red-zone trip, which is not a rate that survives a season but is a real edge now.
Jacksonville were the better version of themselves in Week 1, when Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns against Cleveland. At Denver he threw none and finished at 63.7.
Consequently New England’s route to losing is their own quarterback. Drake Maye has four interceptions already, and Jacksonville have taken the ball away twice.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 208 yards against Pittsburgh, but four interceptions across two games.
- TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAC, QB): 189 yards and an interception at Denver, after four touchdowns in the opener.
- Parker Washington (JAC, WR): Seven catches for 98 yards at Denver.
How to watch Patriots vs Jaguars
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27 at EverBank Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Patriots vs Jaguars |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 3, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Jaguars prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Jaguars prediction is a New England win, 20-16. The Patriots defense is the best thing in this game by a distance, and Jacksonville have not scored a touchdown through the air since Week 1.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 3 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Packers | Packers 23-10 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Browns | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Colts | Colts 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chiefs @ Dolphins | Chiefs 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chargers @ Bills | Bills 31-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Jaguars | Patriots 20-16 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Lions | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Giants | Titans 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Vikings @ Buccaneers | Vikings 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Ravens @ Cowboys | Ravens 30-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Raiders @ Saints | Raiders 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Rams @ Broncos | Rams 26-17 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Eagles @ Bears | Eagles 24-20 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Patriots vs Jaguars FAQ
Narrowly New England, despite playing away. Both are 1-1, but the Patriots have conceded one touchdown all season.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, at EverBank Stadium.
One touchdown conceded in two games, 17.4% allowed on third down, and no points from any opponent red-zone trip.
New England beat Pittsburgh 20-3. Jacksonville lost 20-13 at Denver.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change