The race for the 2026 World Cup Golden Ball is already taking shape ahead of the tournament’s start.
Awarded to the player of the tournament, the Golden Ball has been a key individual prize since its introduction at the 1982 World Cup in Spain, when Italy’s Paolo Rossi became the first recipient after firing his side to glory with six goals.
Since then, only a select group of players have claimed the honour, with Lionel Messi the sole man to win it twice – first in 2014 and again in 2022.
Heading into 2026, several of the game’s biggest names are expected to be in contention, with England captain Harry Kane currently leading the betting, closely followed by Spain’s rising star Lamine Yamal.
The latest World Cup 2026 Golden Ball odds
| Player | Odds from Bet365 | Odds from BetVictor | Odds from Paddy Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane (England) | 7/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| Lamine Yamal (Spain) | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| Michael Olise (France) | 10/1 | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe (France) | 10/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 10/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| Vinicius Junior (Brazil) | 14/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) | 20/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Raphinha (Brazil) | 20/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) | 25/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Jude Bellingham (England) | 25/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Declan Rice (England) | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| Rayan Cherki (France) | 25/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| Erling Haaland (Norway) | 25/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
Who will win the Golden Ball?
Harry Kane (England)
England’s main man this summer will be Harry Kane and he’s currently heading the market to win the Golden Ball. That’s maybe not the best sign for Three Lions fans, with only four of the 11 previous winners coming from the country that won the World Cup.
Kane’s pedigree is clear to see. He’s got 78 goals in 122 appearances for England, making him the leading goalscorer in the history of the English national team, and has scored eight World Cup goals across the previous two tournaments. Add 213 Premier League goals and 95 Bundesliga goals to that tally and Kane can lay claim to being the best striker in world football at the current time.
Out and out strikers haven’t dominated the Golden Ball award since it’s inception. The likes of Romario, Ronaldo and Diego Forlan have picked up the award over the years but only Forlan ended his respective tournament as top scorer as well. Kane adds plenty of dimensions to the England attack but he’ll need to really inspire Thomas Tuchel’s side to win the Golden Ball in 2026.
Lamine Yamal (Spain)
Many have long touted Yamal as the successor to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo as the dominant force in world football and this could be the year that the 18-year-old fully grabs that crown.
It’s hard to believe that Yamal only turns 19 during the tournament, with over 100 appearances for Barcelona and 25 caps for Spain already under his belt. His performances for both club and country have been superb for a long time now and he’s already got three La Liga titles and a European Championship under his belt, as well as being runner-up in the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
There are some doubts over his fitness, with a hamstring injury keeping him sidelined since the end of April, which ended his domestic season as a result. If he can come back from that injury and star for Spain this summer then the Golden Ball could be a real possibility, especially with a history of mercurial talents, such as Diego Maradona and Messi, lifting the award.
Michael Olise (France)
It’s been a meteoric rise for Olise over the past couple of years. His big-money move from Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich ended speculation around his future and propelled him onto the world stage.
Since that move Olise has cemented himself as one of the premier right wingers in world football. His debut season in the Bundesliga saw him produce 12 goals and 17 assists but he has eclipsed that in his second year, finding the net 15 times and providing 19 assists as Bayern roared their way to the title.
While France haven’t announced their final squad as yet, Olise will surely be included and will be a focal point of the French attack that also features Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. Those two might dilute the impact from Olise but if he can carry his domestic form onto the international stage then his price of 10/1 might look a little too long.
Kylian Mbappe (France)
There’s no denying the impact that Mbappe has had, on both a domestic and international level. He has 56 goals in 96 caps for France, finishing as the top scorer at the 2022 World Cup with eight goals, and has netted 55 times in 62 appearances for Real Madrid since his move from PSG.
Mbappe lifted the World Cup with France in 2018 and was denied making it back-to-back wins in 2022 by a Messi-inspired Argentina side, despite scoring a hattrick in the final. He has scored 12 World Cup goals already, the same number as Pele, and still has at least three World Cups to perform at, realistically. The only thing that has alluded him at the famed competition is the Golden Ball and he’ll have his eye on grabbing that piece of history this summer.
His odds of 10/1 make him joint-third favourite to win the award, alongside Olise, but he’ll need to outperform his teammate to secure the trophy. This season has seen things at Real Madrid become temperamental, with in-house fighting and dissention in the ranks, but if Mbappe can move past that and play out another tournament like 2022 then he could easily secure the Golden Ball award.
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
It’s perhaps surprising to see Messi as far out as 12/1 to win the Golden Ball but there’s a feeling that Argentina might not be able to replicate what they achieved four years ago. They, of course, won that tournament and Messi picked up the Golden Ball award for the second time but it’s going to take some work for him to lift it for a third tim.
Messi, who will lead Argentina as captain this summer, has been plying his trade in MLS since 2023 making this his first World Cup since he left Europe. It remains to be seen whether the drop in quality from PSG to Inter Miami will have an effect on Messi at the top level but his numbers certainly stack up over the past few seasons. He’s played 64 games in MLS, scoring 59 goals and providing 41 assists.
Those numbers would indicate that Messi is still at the top of his game, despite turning 39-years-old during the World Cup. It would take a brave punter to bet against Messi performing at the top level again and he’ll be looking to cement his status at the greatest of all time by adding even more accolades to his trophy cabinet this summer.
