Outright Odds

Belgium odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 8:58, 10 June 2024 | Updated: 14:27, 15 June 2024

The last vestiges of Belgium’s golden generation will seek to win their nation’s first international title at Euro 2024 this summer.

Now led by former Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig head coach Domenico Tedesco, the Red Devils made light work of their qualifying campaign, going unbeaten in Group F, albeit finishing just a point ahead of Austria.

Despite a gradual change of guard, Belgium are still being tipped as one of those who could go all the way, but as we saw in Qatar, a strong campaign isn’t guaranteed. Many from that disappointing World Cup remain and will want to put things right in Germany.

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Belgium route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Slovakia (17 June 2024, 2pm, Waldstadion)
  • Romania (22 June 2024, 8pm, RheinEnergieStadion)
  • Ukraine (26 June 2024, 5pm, MHPArena)

Belgium potential knockout stage opponents

If Belgium manages to finish in the top two positions of their group, they will directly qualify for the knockout stage and avoid facing another group winner. If they win Group E, they will face a third-placed team from either Group A, B, C or D. On the other hand, if they come second in Group E, they will play against the second-placed team from Group D, which includes France, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, and Wales. Following the group winner route, a potential meeting with the Group D winner or Group F runner-up (Turkey, Georgia/Greece, Portugal, Czech Republic) in the quarter-finals awaits, followed by a potential semi-final with England. Germany, Spain, or Italy could be their Berlin final date.

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Belgium key players for this year’s European Championship

Belgium top Euros Golden Boot contender: Romelu Lukaku

  • Key stat: Romelu Lukaku reached double figures in goals for his 11th season in the ‘big five’ European leagues.

There are no guesses about who Belgium will look to for goals this summer. Though often maligned at club level, despite boasting numbers for which many strikers would die for, Romelu Lukaku is another matter when donning Belgium’s jersey. He is not only their all-time leading scorer with 85 goals, but only Cristiano Ronaldo (128) has bagged more for a European nation.

Lukaku, currently on Chelsea’s books, controversially relocated to Roma last summer, where he reunited with Jose Mourinho, and returned a very healthy 21 goals in 47 games across all competitions. Across his last 10 international appearances, he’s bagged 17 goals, only blanking in one game (0-1 win at Azerbaijan).

Furthermore, in 10 previous European Championship matches, the Antwerpen native has registered six goals, proving that he can be dependent on the biggest stage.

Belgium primary playmaker: Kevin De Bruyne

  • Key stat: Kevin De Bruyne has the most assists of any player in Europe’s big five leagues in all competitions since the start of last season.

Four of Belgium’s ten most capped players are still active. Thibaut Courtois won’t be part of Tedesco’s squad this summer, but Jan Vertonghen, Lukaku and their creative genius Kevin De Bruyne will undoubtedly be. A spate of injuries has dogged De Bruyne in recent months, but he’s finally surpassed the 100-cap mark and scored his 27th goal in a pre-tournament friendly win over Montenegro. A twelve-match run to start 2024, during which he’s produced 12 assists, reminded anyone who needed reminding that De Bruyne performs on a level above most.

The good news for Belgium is there’s no overreliance on the Manchester City man, as there’s plenty of creativity from the flanks through Johan Bakayoko, Leandro Trossard and even De Bruyne’s clubmate Jeremy Doku. Still, those who follow Belgium will hope their playmaker extraordinaire will be lining up against Slovakia on matchday one.

Belgium card magnets & top tacklers: Amadou Onana

  • Key stat: Amadou Onana was Belgium’s most-carded player (2 yellow, 1 red) during Euro 2024 qualifying

Amadou Onana was a busy man during qualifying, averaging 1.5 tackles per 90 minutes and committing seven fouls — both the second-highest among Belgian players. No teammate picked up more cards than Onana, who was booked twice and sent off once, and that’s a trend that follows from his club form with the midfielder committing 37 fouls, making 71 tackles and picking up five yellow cards in 2,090 Premier League minutes.

Of course, Onana has a lot more to his game — including excellent technical ability — and he’ll be using this tournament to attract offers from some massive clubs reportedly circling.

Belgium rising star: Johan Bakayoko

There was a considerable fear that beyond the fabled golden generation, Belgium wasn’t producing talent of comparable ability. It remains to be seen whether the new class lives up to their predecessors, but someone many observers feel can reach those lofty heights is PSV winger Johan Bakayoko, who is already tipped for a Premier League move. Bakayoko was among the biggest reasons why Peter Bosz’s side raced away with the Dutch championship; the 20-year-old forward chipped in with nine assists, while netting 12 himself.

He also created 68 chances and was a constant threat for the runaway Eredivisie champions.

Having cemented his spot on Belgium’s right wing, he’s scored one goal through 12 international appearances while creating two more for his teammates. Among those he’s likely to share a future Belgium team with is 19-year-old Arthur Vermeeren, who recently swapped boyhood club Royal Antwerp for Atlético Madrid, but the talented midfielder, who could potentially fill the shoes vacated by De Bruyne, remains a work in progress. But he will undoubtedly receive plenty of opportunities as he navigates this critical part of his development.

Belgium set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Romelu Lukaku
  • Free kicks: Kevin De Bruyne
  • Corners: Kevin De Bruyne

Belgium tactical analysis and formation

Belgium team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 7.6
  • Corners conceded: 2.5
  • Shots on target: 5.3
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.4
  • Offsides: 1.4

Since being appointed Belgium’s national team manager, succeeding the long-tenured Roberto Martinez, Domenico Tedesco has been flexible in the Red Devils’ lineup. One thing is sure: they’ll be going with a back four, with him never diverting from that in any of his 11 matches. So far, he’s used five different formations, with 4-2-3-1 being the most common, which should be the shape Belgium predominantly takes. During their unbeaten Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, they averaged 58.13% possession and 86% passing accuracy per game.

His first game in charge was a 0-3 win at Sweden; they started in 4-1-3-2 with Trossard and Lukaku up top with De Bruyne sandwiched between two wingers. His first game in charge was a 0-3 win at Sweden; they started in 4-1-3-2 with Trossard and Lukaku up top with De Bruyne sandwiched between two wingers. A healthy KDB takes up the number 10 role in Belgium’s expected 4-2-3-1, with Lukaku leading the forward line. Bakayoko and Trossard should occupy the flanks, though Doku will provide stiff competition. Koen Casteels is currently in possession of the number one journey, with Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen sitting in front as Belgium’s first-choice central defensive pairing.

Belgium final Euro 2024 squad

Koen Casteels Goalkeeper 31 VfL Wolfsburg
Thomas Kaminski Goalkeeper 31 Luton Town
Matz Sels Goalkeeper 32 Nottingham Forest
Timothy Castagne Defender 28 Fulham
Zeno Debast Defender 20 Anderlecht
Arthur Theate Defender 23 Rennes
Wout Faes Defender 25 Leicester City
Jan Vertonghen Defender 36 Anderlecht
Thomas Meunier Defender 32 Trabzonspor
Maxim De Cuyper Defender 23 Club Brugge
Kevin De Bruyne Midfielder 32 Man City
Aster Vranckx Midfielder 21 VFL Wolfsburg
Amadou Onana Midfielder 22 Everton
Youri Tielemans Midfielder 26 Aston Villa
Axel Witsel Midfielder 35 Atletico Madrid
Orel Mangala Midfielder 26 Lyon
Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder 19 Atlético Madrid
Charles De Ketelaere Forward 23 Atalanta
Jérémy Doku Forward 21 Manchester City
Loïs Openda Forward 24 RB Leipzig
Romelu Lukaku Forward 30 Roma
Leandro Trossard Forward 29 Arsenal
Dodi Lukebakio Forward 26 Sevilla
Johan Bakayoko Forward 20 PSV Eindhoven
Yannick Carrasco Forward 30 Al-Shabab

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