Chapecoense vs Flamengo predictions headline the Brasileiro Serie A’s return from the World Cup break. Bottom-placed Chapecoense host second-placed Flamengo at the Arena Conda. Kick-off is at 1:30am (UK time) on Thursday 23rd July.
The contrast between these two sides could not be starker. Chapecoense sit 20th with just nine points from 18 matches. One win, six draws and 11 defeats tell the story of a wretched campaign. Flamengo occupy second on 34 points with a record of 10 wins, four draws and three defeats. The visitors have scored 31 goals and conceded 16 in 17 league fixtures this term.
Chapecoense vs Flamengo predictions & betting tips
| OUR PREDICTION | ODDS & BOOKMAKER | CONFIDENCE | WHY WE’RE BACKING IT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro anytime goalscorer | 9/10 with bet365 (53%) | ★★★ | Pedro sits second in the Serie A scoring chart with 10 goals in 17 league appearances. The striker has netted 19 times across all competitions this season, making him Flamengo’s most important attacking outlet. He faces a Chapecoense defence that has conceded 35 goals in 18 matches — the worst record in the division. The hosts leak 1.9 goals per game on average. A striker of Pedro’s calibre against a side that have won once all season makes 9/10 with Betway generous. |
| Flamengo half-time/full-time | 6/5 with bet365 (45%) | ★★ | Flamengo have led at half-time in nine of their last 15 league matches. Leonardo Jardim’s side won four of their last five fixtures across all competitions before the break. The visitors average 1.8 goals per game in the league. Chapecoense have failed to win any of their last 17 league outings and average just 0.9 goals per game. The hosts’ inability to score early makes a half-time deficit almost inevitable. Flamengo should take control from the first whistle and hold on. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into Chapecoense vs Flamengo
Chapecoense
Chapecoense’s return to Serie A has been a painful affair. One win from 18 league matches leaves them rooted to the bottom on nine points. The gap to 19th-placed Remo is nine points. A run of four consecutive league defeats stretches back before the World Cup break.
The dugout has already seen three managers this season. Fabio Matias was sacked in May after a dire run. Rafael Lacerda arrived from Atletico Goianiense as his replacement. He takes charge of a Serie A side for the first time. His priority is organising a defence conceding almost two goals per game.
The squad has undergone significant turnover during the mid-season window. Former top scorer Walter Clar, midfielder Jean Carlos and goalkeeper Leo Vieira all departed. Max Alves joined on loan from Cuiaba, while Franco Rossi arrived from Toluca. Both are still adapting to the group. Losing Rafael Carvalheira to an ACL injury strips the squad of its most potent remaining attacking threat.
Flamengo
Flamengo arrive in Santa Catarina with momentum behind them. Ten wins from 17 league matches place them second on 34 points. Leonardo Jardim’s appointment in March transformed the campaign. The Portuguese manager boasts 13 wins from 21 matches in charge at a 61.9% win rate.
Pedro leads the attack with devastating effect. Ten league goals and 19 across all competitions make him the squad’s talisman. Samuel Lino has contributed six assists from the flanks. The visitors average 1.8 goals per game while conceding just 0.9.
Pre-break form underlined the upward trajectory. Flamengo are unbeaten in five matches across all competitions, winning four. A 3-0 victory over Coritiba and a 4-2 win against Olimpia showcased the squad’s attacking depth. Jardim won the Campeonato Carioca earlier this year. A Copa Libertadores last-16 exit remains the only blemish on an otherwise excellent 2026.
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Chapecoense team news
Chapecoense face a lengthy injury list. First-choice goalkeeper Anderson is unavailable. Midfielder Rafael Carvalheira is out for the remainder of the campaign after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament. His seven goals made him the club’s leading scorer this season.
Midfielders Max Alves and Robert also miss out. Forward Garcez and defenders Joao Paulo and Victor Caetano are all sidelined. Lacerda is expected to set up with a defensive shape aimed at limiting Flamengo’s creativity.
Flamengo team news
Flamengo travel without several key figures. Jorge Andres Carrascal serves a suspension. Luiz Araujo, Lucas Paqueta, Leo Ortiz and Daniel Sales are all sidelined through injury. Arrascaeta, De la Cruz and Plata face late fitness tests.
Despite the absences, Jardim retains a deep squad. Pedro will lead the line. Samuel Lino should operate on the left flank. The manager has rotated freely throughout the campaign and still delivered results.
Head-to-Head
Flamengo dominate the head-to-head record. The visitors have won eight of 11 previous meetings, with two draws and one Chapecoense victory. Flamengo have scored 24 goals across those fixtures, conceding 11. The last meeting at the Arena Conda in 2021 ended 2-2. In the most recent five encounters, Flamengo have won four and drawn one.
Who comes out on top at the Arena Conda?
Flamengo are firm favourites at a best price of 4/9. Chapecoense are available at 6/1, with the draw at 16/5. The gulf between second and 20th in the table makes the short price entirely justified.
Pedro anytime goalscorer at 9/10 with Betway is the headline pick. Ten league goals, a defence conceding 1.9 per game, and 19 across all competitions make the price generous. This is the division’s second-best scorer against its worst defence.
Flamengo half-time/full-time at 6/5 completes the pair. Jardim’s side have led at half-time in nine of 15 recent league outings. Chapecoense average 0.9 goals per game and have won once all season. Even with several first-choice players absent, Flamengo’s squad depth should prove more than enough to secure a commanding win.
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