Our Patriots vs Jaguars prediction covers the one Week 3 game you can watch without paying for it, and the meanest defence in the league is in it. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The New England Patriots have conceded one touchdown in two games and have not allowed a red-zone score all season. The Jacksonville Jaguars threw four touchdown passes in the opener and none at Denver. Both are 1-1.
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
New England PatriotsWin prob49%
Jacksonville JaguarsWin prob51%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Patriots vs Jaguars: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Patriots vs Jaguars: 2026 form so far
Two identical records with wildly different shapes. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Jaguars defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Jaguars allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 236.5 |
| Rushing yards | 122.5 | 95.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 63.1 | 97.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.1% | 26.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 2.5 |
Jaguars attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Jaguars offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 203.5 | 166.0 |
| Rushing yards | 110.5 | 94.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 110.6 | 78.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 17.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.5 | 3.0 |
Read these as a 2-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New England’s defensive numbers are the outlier: one touchdown conceded, 17.4% allowed on third down and nothing from any red-zone trip. Their own passing game is the weakness, with four interceptions and a 63.1 rating.
Patriots vs Jaguars injury report and team news
Drake Maye completed 14 of 22 for 208 yards against Pittsburgh but has thrown four interceptions in two games.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 189 with no touchdowns and an interception at Denver, a week after four scores against Cleveland.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
New England PatriotsJacksonville JaguarsThe matchup that settles it: one touchdown conceded in two games
New England have held opponents to 17.4% on third down and have not allowed a score from any red-zone trip. That rate will not last a season, but it is a real edge now.
Jacksonville were the better version of themselves in Week 1, when Lawrence threw four touchdowns against Cleveland. At Denver he threw none and finished at 63.7.
New England’s route to losing is their own quarterback. Four interceptions already, and Jacksonville have taken the ball away twice.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 208 yards against Pittsburgh, but four interceptions across two games.
- TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAC, QB): 189 yards and an interception at Denver, after four touchdowns in the opener.
- Parker Washington (JAC, WR): Seven catches for 98 yards at Denver.
How to watch Patriots vs Jaguars
This one is free-to-air in the UK: 5ACTION has it from 5.30pm, with kickoff at 6pm BST, so no subscription is needed. Sky Sports and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carry it too, and a game shown free on Channel 5 is never one of Sky’s exclusive picks, so it is on Game Pass live. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Jaguars |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6:00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 27 Sep |
| Venue | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 2, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Jaguars prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Jaguars prediction is a New England win, 20-16. The Patriots defence is the best thing in the game and Jacksonville have not scored through the air since Week 1.
The live win probability updates on this page through the week.
Every Week 3 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Falcons @ Packers | Packers 23-10 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Panthers @ Browns | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Colts | Colts 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Chiefs @ Dolphins | Chiefs 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Chargers @ Bills | Bills 31-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Patriots @ Jaguars | Patriots 20-16 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Lions | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Giants | Titans 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Vikings @ Buccaneers | Vikings 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Ravens @ Cowboys | Ravens 30-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Raiders @ Saints | Raiders 24-20 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Rams @ Broncos | Rams 26-17 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Eagles @ Bears | Eagles 24-20 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Patriots vs Jaguars FAQ
New England, narrowly, despite playing away. Both are 1-1, but the Patriots have conceded one touchdown all season.
6pm BST on Sunday, September 27, with 5ACTION coverage from 5.30pm.
Yes. 5ACTION shows it free-to-air from 5.30pm, one of the two games Channel 5 puts out free every Sunday.
One touchdown conceded in two games, 17.4% allowed on third down and no points from any opponent red-zone trip.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change