Portugal Women vs Italy Women prediction, odds, betting tips & team news

Italy Women‘s 1-0 win over Belgium has put them in a fantastic position in Group B of Women’s Euro 2025. They sit alongside Spain on three points, knowing they can progress to the next round with a win over Portugal on Monday at 8pm (UK time) on ITV1.

The Portuguese started with a 5-0 loss to Spain, so they’re facing elimination with another defeat. An awful run of results through 2025 have raised concerns, leaves Portugal searching for direction.

Handicap: Italy -1 (19/10 with BoyleSports)

Italy have won three of their previous four internationals, while they’ve secured seven wins from their previous 11 matches. While they claimed a slender win over Belgium in Sion, their performance suggests they can step things up against Portugal.

Le Azzurre recorded 1.59 Expected Goals in their last match, while denying their opponents any clear-cut chances. They may struggle to dominate possession to the extent Spain did in their win over Portugal, with 71% of the ball, but Italy can clear a -1 handicap in this encounter.

Portugal have lost by two goals or more in five of their previous six matches, so back Italy to have a more comfortable night in their second outing.

Italy to win 4-0 (35/1 with William Hill)

Portugal’s 25 goals shipped across their last five defeats suggests that Italy could cruise to a win. Spain generated 3.07 xG in the first-half against Portugal, scoring four times. With the game already won, that dipped to 1.22 in the second half.

Portugal concede too many chances, while they may struggle to make an impact at the other end. Italy have kept three clean sheets in their previous four matches, while they conceded three goals in six matches on their way to topping their qualifying group.

Italy scored four times in their final warm-up friendly earlier this month, so back them at a huge price to secure a 4-0 win.

How both teams go into Portugal vs Italy

Portugal were 4-0 down by half-time in their opening game of the tournament, continuing a dreadful run of form. That was their fifth defeat in six matches, with a 0-0 draw against Nigeria their only respite in that run.

Portugal conceded 25 times across those five losses, denting their hopes of a strong showing at this tournament. Having won just one game at the European Championship finals in their history, the team were hoping for a better showing after securing four points at the World Cup in 2023.

Hopes were high for a first knockout tournament appearance in a major competition, especially after they started 2025 with a 1-1 draw with England and a win over Belgium.

However, Portugal’s struggles began in April, when they lost heavily home and away to Spain. Comprehensive defeats ahead of the tournament didn’t help their preparations, cancelling out a wave of optimism which followed an unbeaten qualifying campaign.

Their opponents are riding a wave at this tournament, after struggling at the 2022 Euros and the World Cup the following year. Italy’s strong Nations League showing carried into their tournament opener, with the side optimistic of at least a return to the quarter-finals.

Portugal team news

Portugal cannot take much from their opening defeat to Spain in terms of team selection. But we could see the experienced Ana Borges come into the side to help tighten things up on the flanks.

Italy team news

Martina Lenzini, Lucia Di Guglielmo and Sofia Cantore were all booked in Italy’s opening game against Belgium and walk a tightrope. But Le Azzurre are likely to remain unchanged, with full focus on sealing a quarter-final spot here.

Portugal vs Italy head-to-head

Portugal and Italy haven’t met since 2020, with Le Azzurre winning that meeting 2-1. Italy have also won 10 of their 13 games against Portugal overall.

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