Zinedine Zidane takes charge of France on home soil for the first time on Friday, and our France vs Italy predictions expect goals when the old rivals meet at the Stade de France at 7.45pm.
Anthony Eadson’s France vs Italy predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Our two Premium Tips for France vs Italy are below, with prices from William Hill and bet365.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| France to win and over 2.5 goals | 20/23 (William Hill) | France have won four of the last five meetings with Italy, and every one of those wins came in a game with three or more goals: 2-1 in 2012, 3-1 in 2016, 3-1 in 2018 and 3-1 at San Siro in November 2024. Zidane’s side have been tight so far in this campaign, but France scored three or more in five of their eight World Cup games this summer. Italy have conceded in five of their last six competitive away matches and let in two at home to Belgium last Friday. Mancini’s side are yet to keep a clean sheet in this Nations League campaign. |
| France 2-1 Italy (correct score) | 15/2 (bet365) | Italy have scored in each of their last five meetings with France, while France have won four of them, including a 2-1 success in Parma in 2012. The Azzurri found the net four times in Bursa on Monday and have scored in three of their last four competitive matches. France have scored exactly once in each Nations League game, and Michael Olise has scored or assisted both of those goals. Les Bleus also beat Iceland 2-1 at the Parc des Princes in World Cup qualifying in September 2025. A narrow home win with both teams scoring fits the recent pattern of this rivalry, and 15/2 is a big price for it. |
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How France go into the game
France have six points from six under Zidane after 1-0 wins in Turkey and Belgium, with Kylian Mbappe scoring in Kocaeli and substitute Michael Olise scoring an 88th-minute winner in Brussels. Those results followed a fourth-place World Cup finish, after a 2-0 semi-final defeat to Spain and a 6-4 loss to England in the third-place play-off.
Mbappe misses this game with a knee injury, Ibrahima Konate withdrew with a ligament problem and William Saliba is not in the squad, while Warren Zaire-Emery pulled out with a thigh injury. Esteban Lepaul of Rennes is the only orthodox centre-forward available. At home, Les Bleus won their three World Cup qualifiers by an aggregate score of 9-1.
How Italy go into the game
Roberto Mancini’s second spell began with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium in Rome, but a much-changed Italy responded by winning 4-1 in Bursa on Monday. Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, debutant Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito all scored as the Azzurri moved level on points with Belgium, who sit second on head-to-head record.
Italy missed the World Cup after losing the play-off final on penalties to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and they have conceded in five of their last six competitive away games. Giacomo Raspadori has been ruled out of this window, Nicolo Zaniolo withdrew with a hamstring problem and Federico Dimarco pulled out injured, but Nicolo Barella is expected back.
France vs Italy head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/24 | Italy | 1-3 | France |
| 06/09/24 | France | 1-3 | Italy |
| 01/06/18 | France | 3-1 | Italy |
| 01/09/16 | Italy | 1-3 | France |
| 14/11/12 | Italy | 1-2 | France |
Four of the last five meetings have gone the way of Les Bleus, and each of those wins came with at least three goals in the game. Italy’s only victory in that run was a 3-1 success in Paris in September 2024, before France won by the same score at San Siro two months later. Both teams have scored in all five of those matches.
France vs Italy predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| France to win and over 2.5 goals | 20/23 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐⭐ | France have won four of the last five meetings, all in games with three or more goals. |
| France 2-1 Italy (correct score) | 15/2 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Italy have scored in each of the last five meetings, and France won 2-1 in Parma in 2012. |
| Both teams to score | 8/13 (Betfred) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams have scored in each of the last five meetings. |
| France to win | 4/9 (Betfred) | ⭐⭐ | Zidane’s side have won both Nations League games without conceding. |
France vs Italy score prediction
Mbappe’s absence takes some firepower away from the hosts, but Olise has been involved in both of France’s goals in this group and Italy have scored in each of the last five meetings. Another home win in an open game looks the likeliest outcome. Score prediction: France 2-1 Italy.
