The 2025 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship is set for a nail-biting conclusion this weekend between title contenders Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri.
Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the 24th and final race of what has been a compelling season, with the above trio each holding a mathematical chance of being crowned champion.
Below, we run through the various permutations that could see each driver win the 2025 edition.
Current standings
Norris leads the way with 408 points, a gap that has been reduced to 12 points following Verstappen’s win in Qatar last weekend. Piastri is 16 points behind Norris and four points behind the defending champion.
| Position | Driver | Team | Points | Gap to Leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 408 | – |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 396 | 12 points |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 392 | 16 points |
Drivers’ Championship permutations
The frontrunner: Lando Norris
Lando Norris holds a crucial 12-point lead over Verstappen in second and is 16 points better off than his teammate Piastri.
- sdsdsdsdsd
His path to a maiden World Championship is the most straightforward, but no less nerve-shredding.
Here, we lay out the various scenarios that will see Norris secure the spoils.
- Norris finishes on the podium (P1, P2, or P3): Then he’s definitely the champion, regardless of what the others do.
- Norris finishes 4th or 5th: Verstappen must then finish second at most. If Verstappen wins and Norris finishes 4th, the title goes to Verstappen. But if Verstappen finishes 2nd or lower, Norris remains champion.
- Norris finishes 6th or 7th: This means Verstappen needs to finish at most 2nd, and Piastri also needs to finish at most 2nd.
- Norris finishes 8th: Verstappen then has to finish at most 3rd and Piastri at most 2nd.
- Norris finishes 9th: That would require Verstappen to finish a maximum of 4th and Piastri a maximum of 2nd.
- Norris finishes 10th or lower: Verstappen needs to finish a maximum of 4th and Piastri a maximum of 3rd. If Norris falls outside the points, he’ll need luck if his competitors also have a bad race.
The defending champion: Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen, the reigning champion, is 12 points behind Norris. He needs a strong performance and a slip-up from Norris, while also keeping Piastri at bay.
Here’s how the defending champion can claim his fifth straight Drivers’ Championship.
- Verstappen wins and Norris finishes 4th or lower: If he wins the race (25 points) and Norris finishes 4th (12 points), Verstappen will end up with 421 points and Norris with 420. The title will then go to Verstappen by just one point.
- Verstappen finishes 2nd, Norris finishes 8th or lower, and Piastri finishes 3rd or lower: Verstappen would then receive 18 points (414 total), Norris a maximum of 4 points (412 total), and Piastri cannot score more than 15 points (407 total).
- Verstappen finishes 3rd, Norris finishes 9th or lower, and Piastri finishes 2nd or lower:
This is the least likely scenario. Verstappen receives 15 points (total 411), Norris a maximum of 2 points (total 410), and Piastri may score no more than 18 points (total 410). In the event of a tie, Norris wins due to more 2nd-place finishes this season.
The third wheel: Oscar Piastri
Calling Oscar Piastri a third wheel is a tad harsh, especially given that he previously led the standings for much of the season – between round five and 19 – but the Aussie is currently winless in eight races and needs a real moment of magic – and sprinkling of luck – to come out on top.
Piastri is 16 points behind teammate Norris and four points behind Verstappen. He will win the title if:
- Piastri wins and Norris finishes 6th or lower: If Piastri wins the Abu Dhabi (25 points, total 417) and Norris finishes 6th or lower, Piastri becomes world champion. Verstappen can do whatever he wants in this scenario; it doesn’t matter.
- Piastri finishes 2nd, Norris finishes 10th or lower, and Verstappen finishes 4th or lower: Piastri gets 18 points (410 total), Norris a maximum of 1 point (409 total), and Verstappen can score a maximum of 12 points (408 total). This requires both Norris and Verstappen to have a disastrous race.
What if the points are tied?
One of the most intriguing outcomes in this year’s title fight is what happens if the championship points are tied. In that scenario, the countback system is used, starting with the number of race wins.
Remarkably, Norris, Verstappen and Piastri each have exactly seven victories this season.
So, if Sunday’s race doesn’t produce a winner and the points end level, the next tiebreaker is the number of second-place finishes. Norris currently leads that category with eight, followed by Verstappen on six and Piastri on four.
Drivers’ Championship prediction
Verstappen arrives in Abu Dhabi in fantastic form, so it’s no surprise to see the Dutchman heading the betting markets for the season finale – full odds are listed below.
After enduring an eight-race drought between Monaco and his home Dutch Grand Prix, the four-time world champion has since roared back with five wins in the last eight races, gobbling up the McLaren duo’s points advantage in style.
While Verstappen is a strong pick to seal a third straight victory – and his fifth Abu Dhabi win in six years – championship leader Lando Norris still controls his own destiny, knowing that a podium finish at the Yas Marina Circuit would be enough to clinch his first Drivers’ Championship, regardless of what Verstappen or Piastri do.
Our verdict? Verstappen to win the race, and Norris to seal the title – a double available at 2.25/1 with BetMGM.
The Points system explained
The following points are awarded for the top 10 finishers in the Grand Prix:
| Position | Points |
|---|---|
| 1 | 25 |
| 2 | 18 |
| 3 | 15 |
| 4 | 12 |
| 5 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 |
Drivers’ Championship odds
Norris’ destiny is in his own hands and he knows that a podium finish will be enough to win him his first title, regardless of what the other two do. The Englishman is therefore the red-hot 3/10 favourite in the betting to win the Drivers’ Championship, Verstappen is priced at 5/2, with Piastri the 14/1 outsider.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds
Verstappen is the 6/4 favourite to claim his third win in a row and eighth of the season. Norris follows at 2/1, with Piastri available at 11/4.
George Russell is the only other driver to have stood top of the podium in 2025 – twice – and is priced at 10/1 to secure his third victory.
