Chelsea travel to Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday at 4:30pm hoping to keep their top four hopes alive.
The Blues currently sit fifth in the league, three points behind fourth-placed Manchester United. Fifth might be enough to secure Champions League football for next season, but it’s still a very tight race.
Chelsea predicted lineup vs Arsenal
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; James, Adarabioyo, Chalobah, Gusto; Caicedo, Santos; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro.
Liam Rosenior’s men have suffered a minor dip in form. Although they are unbeaten in their six league games under Rosenior, Chelsea have dropped points against promoted sides in their past two.
Arsenal have also handed Rosenior his two defeats as a Chelsea manager so far, in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi-final.
Chelsea team news vs Arsenal
Rosenior will be forced to make at least one change from the team that drew against Burnley last time out. Wesley Fofana was sent off in the draw and must sit this one out through suspension.
Tosin Adarabioyo came on to partner Trevoh Chalobah as Rosenior tried to reshuffle his defence. And Adarabioyo is the likely starter here. But Mamadou Sarr, Josh Acheampong and Benoit Badiashile are other options.
Reece James and Malo Gusto should continue as the full-back partners, with the Frenchman starting on the left. Chelsea remain without Marc Cucurella, though he isn’t expected to be out much longer.
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The rest of the Chelsea team should remain unchanged. Andrey Santos and Moises Caicedo are the likely double pivot. Many believed Santos to be the subject of Rosenior’s indirect criticism for Burnley’s equaliser last weekend. But Romeo Lavia isn’t fit enough to be thrown into a big game from the start.
And Enzo Fernandez will continue to be deployed further forward as the No.10. He’ll be flanked by Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto, with Joao Pedro through the middle.
Chelsea are also without Jamie Gittens, Levi Colwill, Filip Jorgensen and Dario Essugo. Estevao is a doubt.
Rosenior easing Chelsea’s big problem
One of Chelsea’s biggest problem this season has been their finishing. The Blues have garnered 52.3 Expected Goals in the Premier League this season, the most in the division. They’ve scored 48 goals from those — with two teams netting more. But only three teams have underperformed against their xG more than Chelsea’s -4.3 difference.
Rosenior’s arrival has eased that problem slightly. The Blues averaged 1.91 xG per game in their first 21 matches of the season, scoring 1.62 goals. That’s an underperformance of -0.29 per game.
Since Rosenior has taken charge, Chelsea have averaged 2.53 xG per game. That’s a healthy improvement either way, with Chelsea creating more chances. They’ve sored 2.33 goals per game under Rosenior. While it is still an underperformance of -0.20 per game, Chelsea are on the right track.
To confuse things a little, though, Chelsea’s shot placement hasn’t been as good under Rosenior. In their first 21 games in charge, the Blues registered 1.94 post-shot xG. That’s an improvement of 0.03 from their xG. So they increased their chances of scoring by 0.03 based on where they were placing their shots on target. Under Rosenior, their post-shot xG is 2.11, which is a -0.42 difference on their xG.