Nuno Espirito Santo took over West Ham United at the end of September following Graham Potter’s sacking.
Since arriving, the 51-year-old coach has taken charge of eight matches, averaging 1.00 points per game. If the Hammers were to continue at that rate, they’d end the season with 36 points.
That would be enough to secure safety in each of the past five Premier League seasons. But this season feels tough to predict, due to the strong start from the likes of Sunderland and an extremely poor showing from Nottingham Forest.
So, West Ham fans will be hoping for an improvement over the coming months, enough to take them away from the brink of relegation and earn safety with a bit more conviction.
In this article, we’ll cover
Espirito Santo’s philosophy
Last season, Espirito Santo led Nottingham Forest to a seventh-placed finish in the Premier League. That was despite averaging 40.7% possession, the third-lowest in this metric last season.
Despite being at the bottom end for possession metrics, Forest averaged 12.1 shots per 90 minutes, scoring 1.5 goals from an 1.2 Expected Goals per 90.
Espirito Santo’s side scored 17 goals from set-pieces, the most in the Premier League last season. They only conceded nine from set-pieces themselves, the eighth-lowest last season in this regard.
Forest were built on defensive solidity, being well drilled in a low block and having the ability to suffer without the ball, before hitting teams on the break with plenty of space to run into.
The biggest issue for West Ham is the fact they are leaking goals (27). The Hammers have conceded 15.2 shots per 90 (the second-most in the league) and lack the profiles to hurt teams on the break.
Midfield mobility
One area that has improved drastically since Espirito Santo’s arrived is the midfield. It’s an area West Ham were struggling to fix in recent years, since losing Declan Rice.
At the start of this season, the likes of James Ward-Prowse, Tomas Soucek and Guido Rodriguez were playing in midfield for West Ham, lacking athleticism in the middle of the park and often being over run in there as a byproduct.
However, the arrival of Espirito Santo has seen Freddie Potts receiving significantly more minutes. It’s given West Ham the mobility and grit they require in the middle of the park to win duels and keep things ticking.
Matheus Fernandes has also been an excellent signing so far. He again brings extra mobility to the midfield, with dynamic movement and quality on the ball at various heights.
Having the pair in midfield together has seen West Ham get results in recent weeks against the likes of Newcastle and Burnley, while also earning a draw against Bournemouth, giving Espirito Santo a solid foundation to move forward with in his spine.
Counter attacking threat
One of the biggest issues for Espirito Santo right now is finding the balance between stopping the leaking of goals, while still finding a way to provide a threat of their own going the other way.
Where Forest had plenty of pace and carriers to help them in transition, West Ham lack those profiles, heavily relying on their wing-backs for carries from deep.
Jarrod Bowen is an important player for the Hammers. He is their captain and has been the primary outlet at the club for years now.
However, he isn’t exactly a one man band in transition who can utilise his pace to escape multiple defenders and create chances. This often hinders the Hammers chance to punish teams who leave space to exploit.
At the end of these counter attacking moves, Forest also had Chris Wood finish off the moves. The New Zealand striker overperformed his xG by +6.6 last campaign.
West Ham are also lacking in this area with a clinical finisher in the box to finish off moves. Niclas Fullkrug has struggled with injuries and Callum Wilson has shown inconsistency, despite netting a brace against Bournemouth.
Fixing the mentality
The mentality is a big factor for Espirito Santo as mentioned previously. His teams are often required to suffer in matches without the ball, in order to benefit from the space in behind on the break.
With the fans discontent in recent months, the overall atmosphere around the club has suffered. It’s something Espirito Santo will have to fix in order to continue building the foundations for his idea.
Players like Potts who offer that energy in midfield, but also come through the academy and knows what it takes to play for the club are extremely important. And more leaders could be something the Hammers target in January to further address the mentality.
In their last four matches, West Ham have won twice, drawn once and lost once. So things have been slightly better in recent weeks. But the next step will be addressing those high scoring 3-2 chaotic wins and turning them into 2-0 solid victories, something Espirito Santo will be aiming for in the coming months.