For three seasons in a row, the first round of Premier League fixtures after the September international break has been a strangely quiet one before half-time.
Fifteen of the 30 games played in that gameweek since 2023/24 were 0-0 at the break. Across every other game in those three seasons, the figure was 25%. Gameweek 6 is the first round back this season, and the half-time 0-0 market is where we think the value lies.
We’ve looked at why the trend exists, which teams fit it best this season and which of their players have had the longest trips home.
What’s in this article
Twice as many goalless first halves
The pattern has held in each of the last three seasons. Six of the ten games in 2023/24’s first round back (Gameweek 5) were 0-0 at half-time. It was four in Gameweek 4 of 2024/25 and five in Gameweek 4 last season.
It only seems to happen after the first break. The first gameweeks after the October, November and March windows had a half-time 0-0 rate of 26% over the same period, which is in line with any other weekend.
The most likely explanation is timing. The first break arrives after only three, four or five league games, when new signings are still settling in and teams are still finding their rhythm. Two weeks apart, with players scattered across the globe, seems to slow everything down again.
The goals still come after the break
Those quiet first halves don’t always mean quiet games. Only four of the 15 games that were goalless at half-time finished 0-0. Tottenham were level with Sheffield United at the break in 2023/24 before winning 2-1, and a goalless first half at West Ham last season ended in a 3-0 Spurs win.
The first gameweek back has averaged 0.67 first-half goals per game over the last three seasons, around half the 1.32 seen in every other game. Second halves have produced 1.53 goals per game, which isn’t far off the usual 1.69.
Unders have paid too
Fewer first-half goals have meant fewer goals overall. The first gameweek back averaged 2.20 goals per game over the last three seasons, compared with 3.01 in every other game, and half of the 30 matches finished with fewer than three goals.
Backing under 2.5 goals in all 30 games at the best available pre-match price would have made a profit of 4.42 points to a one-point stake, a 14.7% return. It was profitable in each of the three seasons, although only just in 2025/26, when the profit was 0.07 points.
Thirty games is a small sample, so this is a trend rather than a rule. But it gives us a starting point for this weekend.
Which teams are starting slowly this season?
This season’s half-time scores point us towards two games in particular: Manchester United against Tottenham Hotspur, and Crystal Palace against Nottingham Forest.
Forest have been 0-0 at half-time in four of their five league games, more than any other team. There has only been one first-half goal in their matches all season, and Forest have failed to score in three of the five.
Man Utd have gone in at 0-0 at half-time in each of their last three games, against Everton, Manchester City and Fulham. Spurs have been level at 0-0 at the break in three of their five games and have scored just twice all season.
The players with the longest journeys
This international window ran from 21 September to 6 October, and some nations played four times. Several regular starters in these games have had long trips home.
Lisandro Martínez was in the Argentina squad that finished its window against Benin in Buenos Aires on 6 October, four days before Man Utd host Spurs. Rodrigo Bentancur was named in Uruguay‘s squad for a tour of Japan, South Korea and India that finished in Kolkata on the same night.
Daichi Kamada‘s Japan side played four friendlies across the country, the last in Tokyo on 5 October, while Daniel Muñoz was in Colombia‘s squad for three games in the United States, ending in Miami on 6 October. Arsenal‘s Gabriel was named in the Brazil squad that travelled to Australia and India, and he has had a week longer to recover than most.
Our half-time 0-0 tips for Gameweek 6
The half-time 0-0 bets pay more, while the unders are more likely to land. Palace vs Forest appears twice below, so we’d pick one of those two bets rather than backing both.
| Game | Bet | Odds | Why we like it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd vs Tottenham (Sat, 5.30pm) | 0-0 at half-time | 3/1 (Sky Bet / Paddy Power) | Man Utd have been 0-0 at the break in each of their last three games, and Spurs have scored only twice all season. |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest (Sun, 2pm) | 0-0 at half-time | 2/1 (Sky Bet) | Forest have been 0-0 at half-time in four of their five games, more than any other team. |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest (Sun, 2pm) | Under 2.5 goals | 10/11 (bet365) | Forest’s games have averaged 1.8 goals, the joint-lowest figure in the league. |
| Arsenal vs Leeds (Sat, 12.30pm) | Under 2.5 goals | 11/10 (Sky Bet / Paddy Power) | Leeds have seen fewer than three goals in four of their five games. |
Arsenal have conceded only four goals in five league games, and Leeds have conceded three, joint-fewest in the division along with Everton. Leeds have also seen fewer than three goals in four of their five games.
Odds correct at the time of writing and subject to change. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org