The Championship’s automatic promotion race has ebbed and flowed in typically pulsating style this season. But there are still as many questions as answers heading into the final section.
With only eight gameweeks of the season remaining, EFL expert Gab Sutton takes a look at the story so far and how each of the leading contenders are shaping up ahead of the decisive run-in.
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Coventry vs Middlesbrough: Momentum swings at the top
Just five weeks ago, Middlesbrough beat Sheffield United 2-1 in one of the best away performances at Bramall Lane this season. It saw them overtake Coventry City at the top of the table.
Frank Lampard’s side had led the way from October, having gone unbeaten in their opening 12 matches. That gave way to 10 autumnul wins in 11. But a winter slump of four wins in 13 saw Boro capitalise under the excellent management of Kim Hellberg.
Inheriting a squad familiar with Michael Carrick’s now-famed artificial transitions, and Rob Edwards’ organisational nous, Hellberg has established a team on Teesside that offers the best of both worlds – and the division’s stand-out midfielder in Hayden Hackney – since the latter’s controversial exit in October.
As a result, six consecutive wins for Middlesbrough in winter had Coventry fretting their matchup in February. But the Sky Blues put in an excellent pressing performance to secure a symbolically significant 3-1 win.
The Midlanders leapfrogged their opponents back to top spot on a night that seemed to rid them of their psychological fear of their promotion rivals, almost like dealing with a spider. And it liberated the group to enjoy a six-match winning streak.
Frank Onyeka coming into the side seemed to make all the difference. The Brentford loanee’s defensive qualities took some unwanted defensive transitional responsibilities off playmaker Matt Grimes.
Since Onyeka arrived, Grimes has been freed up to run games in his sleep, thus improving the service for the direct Ephron Mason-Clark, the graceful Jack Rudoni and the potent Haji Wright.
Since then, Middlesbrough haven’t been able to hit the same heights, especially at the Riverside. Boro are now winless in four at home, having taken three points against bottom-half opposition.
Back-to-back away star showings at Birmingham and Queen’s Park Rangers offered a reminded of what Hellberg’s charges are capable of. But their repeated failure to dispose with stubborn strugglers on their own turf threatens to undermine their promotion pursuits.
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Ipswich: Consistency without spark
We then come to Ipswich Town: two points off second-placed Middlesbrough, with a game in hand. Kieran McKenna’s side haven’t been as streaky as the top two, but they are more consistent.
Coventry and Middlesbrough have tended to group their wins together. But the Tractor Boys have only strung a run of more than two successive wins twice: a streak of three wins, and four wins.
Conversely, while both Coventry and Middlesbrough have had regular patches in which they’ve dropped points, Ipswich have never gone more than two games with a victory — since their winless August.
Ipswich were hotly-tipped in pre-season, and there’s been a strong feeling that they would put a strong run together to power into the top two. Instead, they’ve stayed on the fringes of the automatic spots since October.
McKenna’s side have been strong defensively, and they’ve run midfields with Azor Matusiwa looking an inspired summer acquisition. But their attacking dynamics are yet to settle.
Ipswich have better players on paper than the group that won promotion from this level in 2023-24, and far more depth, but the forwards don’t quite have the same synergy and telepathy.
Sindre Walle Egeli, for instance, is a far more talented prospect than Wes Burns, with a much higher long-term ceiling. But Burns possibly offered better balance to the team in terms of industry, character, width and defensive contribution.
Conversely, Jack Clarke and Jaden Philogene, their candidates to operate on the left, are better than Nathan Broadhead. But he had a more selfless relationship to left-back Leif Davis, and an understanding with Conor Chaplin in the No.10.
Then, there’s the likes of Chuba Akpom and Anis Mehmeti in the No.10. Both are much more gifted than Chaplin individually, but needed a bit more freedom. So the equilibrium has worked better when Marcelino Nunez has played there to offer more linkage to midfield, and perhaps redress the balance of the team with increased individuality in the wide areas.
As such, there may be questions levelled at Ipswich’s recruitment in the summer. Not because they haven’t improved the squad in theory, by signing good players, but because in retrospect, they didn’t profile them correctly.
That said, they’re still very close. And if McKenna can establish some understandings in those attacking areas at a crucial stage, through his outstanding coaching, then Ipswich could take some stopping.
Millwall: The dark horses
Then again, don’t sleep on Millwall. The Lions have capitalised on dropped points elsewhere with six wins in their last eight, and 32 points amassed from their last 15 games.
Alex Neil has built a young, energetic, tenacious side at the Den. Much like the one he had at Preston North End a few years ago. But he has a bit more individual talent in the mix.
Millwall boast top one-vs-one operators out wide, most notably in Femi Azeez, who will surely be playing Premier League football next season one way or another, with eight goals and seven assists to his name this season.
Mihailo Ivanovic has also scored eight goals and will be hoping to come on strong at the business end, like he did last season, served by creators like Alfie Doughty, Camiel Neghli, and Azeez.
But don’t ignore what they’re doing at the other end. Millwall have kept 15 clean sheets in the Championship this season, the most in the division. Championship regular Jake Cooper has been expertly marshalling the defence, while Tristan Crama is boasting the best season of his career.
Run-in challenges and key fixtures
Millwall definitely have the least amount of pressure going into the final run-in. But their next two fixtures are key. The Lions go to Portman Road on Saturday, then to the Riverside on Good Friday, in a pair or away days that will make or break their season.
If they get through those unscathed, it’s a gentle run on paper for the Lions. Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, QPR, Stoke City, Leicester City and Oxford United all follow.
Ipswich must also face Norwich, but they travel to Carrow Road for an East Anglian derby. Their rejuvenated arch rivals will be desperate to lay a dent in Ipswich’s promotion bid.
In fact, all of Ipswich’s games between now and the final day of hosting QPR are against sides with something on the line. That includes promotion rivals Middlesbrough, who visit Portman Road on 19th April.
Ipswich do have a game in hand, but it also has unhelpful practical implications on their run-in. The Tractor Boys have no clear weeks after the international break and, after facing Middlesbrough, go straight into back-to-back away games.
Then again, if Ipswich can get themselves in a position of having their fate in their own hands going into the final day, they should do the job against QPR.
Millwall, meanwhile, welcome an Oxford side who may need the points to retain their Championship status. And Middlesbrough face play-off chasers Wrexham.
Boro have a mixed run-in, still having to play Sheffield Wednesday at home and mid-table Swansea City away. They play both of their immediate rivals, which gives them a chance to take points away from them. But it also gives the other a window to gain on Middlesbrough should they fail.
Coventry are nine points clear of third, but they could yet be sucked into the conversation with more defeats like the one to Southampton. But their run-in does look kind.
Enjoy the chaos…
Gab Sutton’s prediction
Coventry and Ipswich to finish in the two automatic promotion spaces.
Championship automatic promotion odds
| Club | bet365 odds | BOYLEsports odds |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 1/80 | 1/100 |
| Ipswich Town | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Middlesbrough | 21/20 | 1/1 |
| Millwall | 10/1 | 10/1 |
| Southampton | 150/1 | 150/1 |
| Hull | 150/1 | 150/1 |
| Wrexham | 350/1 | 350/1 |
| Odds correct as of 20/03/2026 |
