Poland host Sweden at the Tarczynski Arena in Wroclaw on Tuesday 17 November, a 7.45pm (UK time) kick-off in the Nations League, with both sides already knowing where they stand in League B, Group 4.
Sweden have wrapped up top spot and promotion to League A, while Poland cannot be caught in third and are safe from the drop, so this closes out the group with little at stake beyond pride. That could tempt Graham Potter into freshening up his Sweden side, and with Jan Urban‘s Poland desperate to end a disappointing campaign on a high in front of their own supporters, the market makes the hosts narrow favourites. We have weighed up the Poland vs Sweden odds for our best bets, two premium picks and a score prediction below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson makes Poland worthy favourites at home against a Sweden side with nothing left to play for, and our two Premium Tips lean into the hosts ending their group on a winning note, taken at the best prices across our featured bookmakers.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Poland to win | 6/5 (bet365) | Sweden have been the group’s standout side, but with promotion already sealed Potter has every reason to rotate and rest key men, which tilts the motivation firmly towards the hosts. Poland, who still need a result to be sure of avoiding a relegation play-off, showed their ceiling with a 6-0 demolition of Romania, Robert Lewandowski helping himself to a hat-trick, and in front of their own fans in Wroclaw they have plenty to play for. At 6/5, a Poland win is the backbone of our card. |
| Poland to win and both teams to score | 14/5 (William Hill) | Sweden have found the net in every group game and still carry a threat even in a rotated side, having scored 10 times in the campaign, so a clean sheet for Poland is far from guaranteed. Backing the hosts to win alongside goals at both ends gives us a bigger price on our favoured result, and with Lewandowski leading the line and Sweden likely to field fresher attacking legs, a game with goals in it appeals. At 14/5, this is where we see the value. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Poland go into the game
Poland head into the finale third in the group on four points, a point above Romania but not yet safe from the relegation play-off, so there is still something to play for after a flat campaign. Jan Urban’s side managed only one win from their five games, though it was an emphatic one, thrashing Romania 6-0 with Robert Lewandowski claiming a hat-trick and Piotr Zielinski and Jan Bednarek also on target.
Beyond that high point it has been a struggle, with a goalless home draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina, away defeats either side of the Romania rout, and a 2-1 loss away to Romania last time out. Captain Lewandowski remains the focal point and the man the hosts will look to for the goals that can send their supporters home happy in Wroclaw.
How Sweden go into the game
Sweden arrive as deserved group winners, having wrapped up promotion to League A with a game to spare. Graham Potter’s side have been the class of the section, losing none of their five matches and racking up 10 goals, with Viktor Gyokeres in sensational form at the head of the attack.
They beat Poland 3-1 in the reverse fixture in Solna, edged Romania home and away and drew in Bosnia, before a 3-2 home win over Bosnia and Herzegovina last time out in which Gyokeres struck twice from the penalty spot. The Sweden striker has scored six times in the campaign, but with top spot already secured, Potter may well take the chance to rest some of his leading men for the trip to Wroclaw.
Poland vs Sweden head-to-head
Poland and Sweden are familiar opponents, and the Swedes hold the upper hand in the current cycle after a 3-1 win in Solna on 28 September, when Benjamin Nygren, Yasin Ayari and Viktor Gyokeres were all on target. Poland will be out to level the score on home soil, though the picture is complicated by Sweden having nothing left to play for in a dead-rubber finale.
Poland vs Sweden predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland to win | 6/5 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Home advantage and far greater motivation favour Poland against an already-promoted Sweden side likely to rotate. |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 8/15 (Betway) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Sweden have scored in every group game and Poland carry a threat with Lewandowski, pointing to goals at both ends. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/13 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | The reverse fixture produced four goals and Sweden have been among the group’s most productive sides. |
| Poland 2-1 Sweden | 8/1 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | A narrow home win with a Sweden goal in it fits two sides who both carry an attacking threat. |
Poland vs Sweden score prediction
Sweden have been the better team all group and will not want to lose their unbeaten record, but with promotion already in the bag the motivation clearly lies with the hosts. Poland have flattered to deceive this campaign, yet they showed with the Romania rout what they can do when Lewandowski is firing, and a home crowd willing them to finish on a high should lift them. We expect Sweden to carry enough threat to score, but back Jan Urban’s side to edge a lively contest, with Anthony Eadson tipping a 2-1 Poland win. Score prediction: Poland 2-1 Sweden.
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