Estonia round off their Nations League campaign at home to Bulgaria at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn on Monday 16 November, 5pm (UK time), with the unbeaten hosts chasing the win that would cap a quietly impressive League C, Group 4 run.
Jurgen Henn‘s Estonia sit second and have not lost a game in the group, while Aleksandar Dimitrov’s Bulgaria arrive on the back of a chastening 5-0 defeat at home to runaway leaders Iceland. The reverse fixture in September finished goalless, and with two low-scoring sides meeting again we have gone through the Estonia vs Bulgaria odds for our best bets, two premium picks and a score prediction below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson has studied the Estonia vs Bulgaria odds and landed on two picks that lean on a miserly Estonia side at home, taken at the best prices we can find across our featured bookmakers.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Estonia to win to nil | 9/4 (Sky Bet) | Estonia have been built on a rock-solid defence all campaign, conceding just once in five games and keeping four clean sheets, including a 0-0 draw with Bulgaria in the reverse fixture. Bulgaria, by contrast, have scored only three goals in the group and were toothless even before shipping five at home to Iceland last time out. Estonia are narrow favourites in Tallinn and have the organisation to shut this out, so at 9/4 a home win to nil looks a smart way into a game we expect them to control without conceding. |
| Estonia to win 1-0 | 5/1 (BoyleSports) | This has the makings of another tight, low-scoring Estonia game. Henn’s side have edged both of their wins this campaign 1-0, beating Luxembourg home and away by that exact margin, and they rarely overwhelm opponents even when on top. Bulgaria are low on confidence and goals, so we can see this being settled by a single moment at the right end. At 5/1, a 1-0 home win is the correct-score line that best fits the way we expect the game to play out. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Estonia go into the game
Estonia have put together the better campaign than their final position suggests, going unbeaten through the group under Jurgen Henn with two wins and three draws from five games. That has left them second behind only the all-conquering Iceland, and a win here would be a fitting way to sign off.
Their strength has been at the back, where they have conceded just a single goal all campaign. Goalless draws with Bulgaria and Iceland underlined the discipline in Henn’s set-up, while Rasmus Peetson‘s early strike settled the 1-0 win over Luxembourg in October. They do not create a huge amount, but they make themselves very hard to beat.
Top spot is out of their hands, requiring a win here allied to an Iceland slip at home to Luxembourg, so realistically Estonia will be focused on locking down second and finishing the group without defeat. On home soil against a struggling Bulgaria, they have every chance of doing exactly that.
How Bulgaria go into the game
Bulgaria travel to Tallinn in poor shape under Aleksandar Dimitrov, having lost three of their five group games to sit third on four points. The 5-0 hammering at home to Iceland on matchday five was a low point in a campaign that has rarely caught fire.
Their lone win was a 2-0 success away at Luxembourg, but goals have otherwise been in short supply, with just three scored across five matches. A blank in the goalless draw with Estonia in September was typical of an attack that has too often looked blunt.
With little left to play for beyond pride, Dimitrov’s side will at least want to avoid signing off with another heavy defeat. Keeping things tight against an Estonia team that scores sparingly is probably their best hope of taking something from the trip.
Estonia vs Bulgaria head-to-head
These sides met in this same Nations League group in September, when they played out a goalless draw in Bulgaria, a result very much in keeping with both nations’ low-scoring campaigns. That remains the key recent meeting between the two, so we have gone with a short write-up here rather than a full head-to-head table.
Estonia vs Bulgaria predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia to win | 21/20 (Betfred) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Estonia are unbeaten in the group and have the edge in quality and home advantage against a struggling Bulgaria. |
| Both teams to score – No | 4/6 (Betfred) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Estonia have conceded only once all campaign and kept a clean sheet in the goalless reverse fixture. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1/2 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Four of Estonia’s five group games have produced under 2.5 goals, with their matches consistently tight. |
| Estonia 1-0 Bulgaria | 5/1 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐ | Both of Estonia’s wins this campaign have come by a 1-0 scoreline, fitting a cagey, low-scoring contest. |
Estonia vs Bulgaria score prediction
Estonia have been the model of consistency in this group, unbeaten and parsimonious at the back, and they face a Bulgaria side short on goals and confidence after a heavy defeat last time out. We expect another cagey, low-scoring affair in keeping with the goalless reverse fixture, but Estonia carry just enough at home to find the single goal that settles it and sign off their campaign with a clean-sheet win. Score prediction: Estonia 1-0 Bulgaria.
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