Chicago have run for 866 yards and Atlanta for 834. They are the two most productive ground games in the NFL, and our Bears vs Falcons prediction puts them in the same building.
The Chicago Bears are 3-2 at +23. The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 on exactly as many points, 119 apiece, and Bijan Robinson leads the league with 580 rushing yards.
Bears vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Bears vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
First and second in the NFL for rushing yards, in one game. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has allowed.
Bears attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 219.2 | 248.4 |
| Rushing yards | 173.2 | 80.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 91.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.7% | 40.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.9% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Falcons attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 195.0 | 215.4 |
| Rushing yards | 166.8 | 96.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 74.9 | 97.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.7% | 26.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 69.2% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.4 |
Figures are season to date, across 5 games.
Neither side throws it well. Chicago rate 80.8 and Atlanta 74.9, the third-lowest figure in football.
Bears vs Falcons quarterback matchup
This is not a passing matchup. Both teams would rather hand it off, and the numbers through the air explain why.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Bears vs Falcons injury report and team news
Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards, the most of any player in the NFL.
Chicago have run for 866 yards, more than any team in the league, with D’Andre Swift on 354 and Kyle Monangai on 324.
Atlanta’s quarterback room will be confirmed on Friday.
Two run games, one field
Eight hundred and sixty-six rushing yards for Chicago, 834 for Atlanta. The Bears do it by committee; the Falcons do it through Robinson.
Whichever defence holds up against the run decides this, and on that Chicago have the edge, conceding 4.40 a carry against Atlanta’s 3.78.
The Bears’ 26.0% third-down defence is the number that actually wins games, and it is second in the league.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 580 rushing yards, the most of any player in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 488 receiving yards, fourth in the league.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 354 rushing yards in the NFL’s most productive ground game.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): A primary target in an offence rating 80.8 through the air.
How to watch Bears vs Falcons
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 18 October at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. Channel 5 and 5ACTION show selected games free-to-air each Sunday, and those are not affected by the blackout. Check their listings for this week’s picks. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bears vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 18 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 6, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Our Bears vs Falcons prediction is Chicago by 23-20. Both teams want the same game and the Bears have the better defence for it.
The live spread and the model’s number for this one are worth checking again on Friday.
Every Week 6 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Seahawks @ Broncos | Seahawks 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Ravens @ Browns | Ravens 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Falcons | Bears 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Saints @ Giants | Giants 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Patriots 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Steelers @ Buccaneers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Colts | Colts 23-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Cardinals @ Rams | Rams 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Bills @ Raiders | Bills 30-27 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs 31-13 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Cowboys @ Packers | Packers 27-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Bears vs Falcons FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 18 October at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Bijan Robinson, with 580 for Atlanta.
Chicago, with 866 in five games.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change