Buffalo concede on 76.2% of opponent red-zone trips. Las Vegas concede on 77.8%. Our Bills vs Raiders prediction pairs two of the three worst red-zone defences in football.
The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL with 164 points, level with Detroit. The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-2 and have conceded 17 touchdowns, so this should not be quiet.
Bills vs Raiders: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Bills vs Raiders: 2026 form so far
Two defences that cannot finish a stop. The columns put each side’s output next to what the other has conceded so far.
Bills attack against the Raiders defence
| Per game | Bills offence | Raiders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 238.2 | 236.4 |
| Rushing yards | 158.0 | 140.6 |
| Yards per carry | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Passer rating | 99.6 | 99.6 |
| Touchdowns | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Third-down conversion | 50.0% | 42.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 71.4% | 77.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.6 |
Raiders attack against the Bills defence
| Per game | Raiders offence | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 253.6 | 280.4 |
| Rushing yards | 82.0 | 108.2 |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 100.2 | 105.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.4% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.6% | 76.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.6 | 2.2 |
Figures are season to date, across 5 games.
Seven hundred and three rushing yards have gone through the Las Vegas front in five games, at 5.21 a carry.
Bills vs Raiders quarterback matchup
Kirk Cousins has 12 touchdown passes for Las Vegas, which is why this is a shootout rather than a procession.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 79/119, 1039 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT, 100.1 rtg (4 games) |
| Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg | 93/144, 1026 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bills vs Raiders injury report and team news
Buffalo have scored 164 points, level with Detroit for the most in the NFL.
James Cook III has 532 rushing yards, third in the league, and Buffalo have 13 rushing touchdowns.
Greg Rousseau has six sacks for Buffalo, second in the NFL behind Will Anderson Jr.
Neither of these defences finishes a stop
Buffalo have scored 164 points and 20 touchdowns, 13 of them on the ground, and run for 5.37 a carry.
Las Vegas concede 5.21 a carry, the second-worst figure in football, which is the clearest mismatch on the card.
The Raiders can score too. Brock Bowers has 312 receiving yards and Buffalo concede on 76.2% of red-zone trips. Both totals should move.
Players to watch
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 532 rushing yards, third in the NFL, at 5.37 a carry as a team.
- Greg Rousseau (BUF, OLB): Six sacks, second in the league.
- Brock Bowers (LV, TE): 312 receiving yards for an offence rating 100.2.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV, RB): 291 rushing yards against a defence conceding 3.92 a carry.
How to watch Bills vs Raiders
Kickoff is 9.25pm BST on Sunday 18 October at Allegiant Stadium, which is 4:25 PM ET. Channel 5 and 5ACTION show selected games free-to-air each Sunday, and those are not affected by the blackout. Check their listings for this week’s picks. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bills vs Raiders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9.25pm BST Sun 18 Oct / 4:25 PM ET |
| Venue | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 6, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Raiders prediction and score projection
Our Bills vs Raiders prediction is Buffalo by 30-27. Both red-zone defences leak, but the Bills have scored 32 more points.
The live spread and our projected margin update through the week.
Every Week 6 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Seahawks @ Broncos | Seahawks 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Ravens @ Browns | Ravens 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Falcons | Bears 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Saints @ Giants | Giants 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Patriots 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Steelers @ Buccaneers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Titans @ Colts | Colts 23-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Cardinals @ Rams | Rams 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Bills @ Raiders | Bills 30-27 | You are here |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs 31-13 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Cowboys @ Packers | Packers 27-24 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Bills vs Raiders FAQ
9.25pm BST on Sunday 18 October at Allegiant Stadium, which is 4:25 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Buffalo, with 164, level with Detroit.
It concedes 5.21 yards a carry, second-worst in the NFL.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change