Millwall go into their derby with West Ham United 11th in the Championship. But things were looking so much more positive a few weeks ago.
The Lions sent into the third week of the season top of the table, perfect after two games. They had scored five goals and kept two clean sheets in wins over Bristol City and Norwich City.
They then went 1-0 up early on against Southampton and things were looking really positive. But Millwall lost that game 5-1, and the downward spiral started.
Millwall have won just one of their last five Championship games, losing three and drawing one. It’s not ideal form to take into a clash with bitter rivals West Ham, who sit top of the league.
But what has been Millwall’s problem?
Why are Millwall struggling for results?
Less time on the ball
It is unfair and unwise to judge a team after two games — regardless of whether the outcome is positive or negative. Some teams are still finding their feet, and quality of opponents matter. But there has been a change in the way Millwall have played since their perfect start.
Millwall dominated the ball in their first two games, averaging 59.05% possession — the sixth-highest in the league during that time. Now there is the important caveat that Millwall’s opponents went down to 10 men in both matches. They were very much in control during their win over Bristol City, who had Adam Randell sent off before half-time. Things were a lot closer against Norwich, but Millwall still edged possession, in a game with a low number of passes.
Across Millwall’s next five league matches, they have very much had to deal without the ball. Only Charlton Athletic (39.64%) and Lincoln City (38.28%) have had a lower share of possession than Millwall’s 39.96%). They’ve had less possession than their opponents in four of those five matches, only holding more of the ball against Blackburn Rovers (55.1%). And they still lost that game 3-1. Even when they beat Bolton 4-0, the Lions had just 38.9% possession. The lowest was in their draw with Middlesbrough, where Millwall only had 19.8% possession. Although that is perhaps to be expected given Middlesbrough’s style of play.
Deeper defending
The lower possession has also seen a change in the way Millwall have defended. They’re setting up closer to their own goal, which has given opponents more opportunities to test their luck. Across the first two games of the season, Millwall averaged 4.0 possessions won in the attacking third per match. They were pressing high to win the ball back at the first available opportunity. And when the ball reached the middle third, Millwall were strong. Their 27 possessions won in the middle third per game was the most in the Championship across the first two matches.
It meant that Millwall were lower in their 17 possessions won in the defensive third. But Millwall’s defence wasn’t in much danger. They averaged just three shots conceded from inside the box per game, the best in the league. Millwall’s opponents were left to test their luck from outside the box, with five shots per game. But goalkeeper Lukas Jensen only had to make two saves in total across those two matches — both coming against Norwich.
In contrast, Millwall have won possession 2.4 times in the attacking third across their past five matches. The Lions rank 16th in the Championship across that period. They’ve also dropped heavily for possessions won in the middle third, down to 17.6 per game. Again, that ranks then 13th, which is perhaps the biggest difference and reason for their struggles. But, despite defending deeper, Millwall haven’t seen much of an improvement in their possessions won in the defensive third. It has increased slightly to 18.2, but that’s not enough to counter the lack of recoveries higher up the pitch.
And it’s resulted in more shots faced. Millwall have conceded 11 shots from inside the box per game in the Championship, ranking 21st across the past five matches. They also rank 21st for their 5.8 shots conceded from outside the box. At the same time, goalkeeper Jensen suffered a quad injury in training, ruling him out for the foreseeable future. His replacement Max Crocombe has averaged 2.2 saves per 90 minutes, with just one clean sheet in five matches.
Toothless in attack
Millwall’s defensive woes might not be as bad if they were scoring more than their opponents. But they’ve seen a downturn in their attacking form, too. Across their opening two games, Millwall averaged 21.5 shots per match and 2.5 goals. They were creative as a team too, with their players amassing 14 chances created per game. Of those, 3.5 were big chances, placing Millwall first in the Championship.
Tairyk Arconte and Josh Coburn led Millwall for theit two goals scored each, with Luke Cundle also chipping in. Coburn also sat top of the charts for his six shots, with a team-high four on target. Coburn was one of Millwall’s most creative players too, creating four chances in total — though they all came in the 2-0 win over Bristol City.
Since then, however, things have gone downhill. Coburn created just one chance across his next two games and has been absent since through injury. Millwall have now become heavily reliant on Lyndon Dykes. He’s scored four of Millwall’s past eight league games, from nine shots — with every effort on target resulting in a goal. When Dykes hasn’t been on form, Millwall have struggled in front of goal.
As a result, the Lions have averaged just 1.6 goals per game across their past five matches, from 11.8 shots. Only 3.2 of those have been on target, ranking Millwall low in the Championship. The Lions aren’t as creative as a unit, either, averaging just 9.0 chances created per game, with 2.2 big chances. While that still ranks them seventh, it’s a lower proportion of the chances they create.
It makes for worrying reading ahead of the most important game of the season so far.