The 2026 World Cup is now at the semi-finals stage. But we’re presenting an alternate lineup based on Expected Goals (xG).
While games are won on goals scored and conceded, xG can be used to show how matches went in terms of dominance. You could go as far as to say it shows who deserves to win matches.
So, what would the World Cup semi-final lineup look like if xG did decide matches? And what if it was based on the teams with the best xG difference? We’ve taken a look.
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2026 World Cup xG stats
World Cup semi-finalists based on xG results
First off, let’s look at the semi-finals if the actual quarter-finals were won on xG.
France vs Morocco
- Actual result: France 2-0 Morocco
- xG result: France 2.22-0.36 Morocco
- xG winner: France
The first quarter-final went pretty much as it should have, based on xG. France dominated the game with 22 shots to Morocco‘s five, with eight on target to one. It really wasn’t a contest in terms of attacking threat, and Morocco were trying to keep France out as long as they could. France had to wait until the 60th minute to get their first goal, but it was duly deserved. As was their victory.
Spain vs Belgium
- Actual result: Spain 2-1 Belgium
- xG result: Spain 1.85-0.31 Belgium
- xG winner: Spain
Spain left it late to beat Belgium in their quarter-final, with Mikel Merino scoring the winner in the 88th minute. And there was a bit of fortune with a goalkeeper error leading to the goal. But the result seemed to be pretty fair on the balance of things. Spain ran the show with over two-thirds of the possession and 17 shots to Belgium’s five. La Roja hit the target eight times too, with Belgium only really testing Unai Simon twice — including once for their goal.
Norway vs England
- Actual result: Norway 1-2 England
- xG result: Norway 1.05-0.79 England
- xG winner: Norway
The first difference in quarter-final results. England would be out of the World Cup if their game was decided on xG. Like Spain, England needed a goalkeeper error to get their winner against Norway, with Jude Bellingham tapping in after a fumbled save. The two sides were pretty evenly match with England having 14 shots to Norway’s 13. But even with England doubling Norway’s shots on target (eight to four), it was the Vikings who had the higher xG.
Argentina vs Switzerland
- Actual result: Argentina 3-1 Switzerland
- xG result: Argentina 2.24-0.60 Switzerland
- xG winner: Argentina
The final semi-finalist would be Argentina, another result that went as expected. Although Argentina needed extra time against 10-men to beat Switzerland, xG showed that the result was correct. They had double Switzerland’s total shots with 22 to 11, though they only had two more efforts on target (seven to five). Argentina hounded the Switzerland defence, boasting 34 touches in the opposition box, particularly once the European side looked to sit deep with their disadvantage.
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World Cup semi-finalists based on xG difference
What if the semi-finals were decided on xG across the tournament as a whole? The top four teams with the best attacks and defences, hurting opposition defences while offering up very little at the other end of the pitch.
Argentina
- xG For: 12.79
- xG Against: 3.73
- xG Difference: +9.06
There has been a lot of talk surrounding Argentina at the World Cup and the level they’ve been playing at. To the eye, they have relied heavily on Lionel Messi and are only in the semi-finals because of his work. Messi has definitely played a role in their xG being the highest at the World Cup so far, at 12.79. But Messi isn’t a defender. He won’t have had much impact on Argentina facing a pretty decent 3.73 xG against. They’re the best team at the World Cup in terms of xG difference going into the semi-finals.
Spain
- xG For: 10.57
- xG Against: 2.15
- xG Difference: +8.42
Spain have definitely been more about a strong defence than threatening attack. But they’ve still managed to be one of just four teams to have at least 10 xG across the World Cup this summer. Sure, that’s helped by the fact that they have reached the semi-finals, but not all of the final four have hit that stage yet. Of course, the defence has definitely played a part too. They’ve only faced 2.15 xG against at the World Cup, which is actually the second-lowest of all 48 teams. The only team lower than them, Uruguay, were knocked out in the group stages.
Canada
- xG For: 8.63
- xG Against: 2.32
- xG Difference: +6.31
This is not a name anyone would have expected to see here. Canada‘s xG difference of +6.32 is certainly helped by their big win over Qatar. They posted 4.19 xG in that match alone, while conceding just 0.09. But Canada also only faced 0.11 xG in their last-32 win over South Africa. And they even beat Morocco on xG, at 0.62 to 0.45. But, crucially, Morocco took their chances, while Canada didn’t, to seal the 3-0 win for the Atlas Lions.
France
- xG For: 9.36
- xG Against: 3.39
- xG Difference: +5.97
Another team that won’t be a surprise. France are favourites to win the World Cup and have a strong team at both ends of the pitch. However, they are the only actual semi-finalist to have an xG return lower than 10. Still, their xG has been pretty consistent across the World Cup and they’ve stepped things up in the knockout stages. Les Bleus blew Morocco away in the quarter-finals, with 2.22 xG to just 0.36 Against. Only Norway have really given them problems at the other end of the pitch.
| Team | Expected Goals For | Expected Goals Against | Expected Goals Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 12.79 | 3.73 | +9.06 |
| Spain | 10.57 | 2.15 | +8.42 |
| Canada | 8.63 | 2.32 | +6.31 |
| France | 9.36 | 3.39 | +5.97 |
| Germany | 9.74 | 3.93 | +5.81 |
| Brazil | 8.32 | 3.59 | +4.73 |
| Colombia | 7.32 | 2.71 | +4. 61 |
| Belgium | 12.16 | 7.61 | +4.55 |
| England | 10.42 | 6.34 | +4.08 |
| Turkey | 6.48 | 2.92 | +3.56 |
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