After edging Real Madrid 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu last week, Bayern Munich return to the Allianz Arena with the upper hand, looking to complete the job on home and progress to the Champions League semi-finals. Kick-off for the quarter-final second leg is set for 20:00 on Wednesday, with both sides believing they can make the final-four.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to Win & BTTS | 11/8 @ Bet365 (42.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bayern arrive off the back of a 5-0 win over St Pauli at the weekend and take a 2-1 lead into this second leg. The Bavarians look the real deal this season, but with Real scoring in all but two of their away games this season, we could be in for a high-scoring contest. This game could follow a similar script to the first leg and the hosts to win with both teams scoring looks the value play at 11/8. |
| Harry Kane 2+ Goals | 11/4 @ Bet365 (26.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | From a player perspective, the familiar names dominate the market with predictably short odds. While not exactly generous, the 11/4 price on Harry Kane to score two or more goals still catches the eye. He’s found the net in four Champions League home matches this season, and in three of those he struck twice. After bringing up his 49th goal of the campaign at the Bernabéu last week, another brace here wouldn’t be unexpected. |
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How both teams go into Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
Goals either side of the break from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane gave Bayern Munich a narrow first leg win over Real Madrid, ending a nine match winless run against the Spanish side. A late goal from Kylian Mbappe kept the tie alive for the visitors, who will still believe they can turn things around. Bayern can take confidence from their strong record in Europe after winning the first leg away from home, having progressed in 29 of their last 30 such ties.
They followed that result with a dominant 5-0 league win and sit comfortably clear at the top of the Bundesliga, but their focus now shifts back to the Champions League. Despite a poor recent record against Spanish opposition in knockout ties, their home form offers encouragement. Bayern have won all five of their European matches at the Allianz Arena this season and rarely lose there, which gives them a strong chance of finishing the job and reaching the semi finals.
Real Madrid are in danger of ending a second straight season without major silverware as their form dips at a crucial stage. Their first leg defeat to Bayern Munich came in between disappointing league results, including a loss to Mallorca and a home draw with Girona that drew frustration from supporters. Those dropped points have allowed Barcelona to open up a significant lead at the top of La Liga.
Since the departure of Xabi Alonso, things have not gone smoothly for manager Alvaro Arbeloa, with a cup upset and inconsistent European performances increasing the pressure. Despite their struggles, Real Madrid’s history in this competition offers hope. They have a strong record against German teams and have enjoyed success at the Allianz Arena, remaining unbeaten there in recent visits, which gives them belief they can still overturn the deficit.
Bayern Munich team news
Bayern Munich will be without Lennart Karl and Sven Ulreich through injury, while Harry Kane is expected to be available despite some minor discomfort after the first leg. The striker was left on the bench at the weekend but remains in excellent form, having contributed either a goal or an assist in each of his last four Champions League games against Real Madrid and sitting on 11 goals in the competition this season.
In attack, Serge Gnabry is likely to return after a minor issue and could line up with Luis Diaz and Michael Olise, while Aleksandar Pavlovic is pushing for a midfield spot ahead of Leon Goretzka. At the back, Jonathan Tah, Dayot Upamecano and Josip Stanisic are all set to return, forming part of the defence in front of experienced goalkeeper Manuel Neuer.
Real Madrid team news
Real Madrid will be without Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo due to injury, while Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended after picking up a third yellow card in the first leg. Kylian Mbappe has been in outstanding form in the competition with 14 goals in 10 games, but he is a slight doubt after suffering a facial injury in the recent draw with Girona.
If Mbappe is available, he is expected to lead the attack alongside Vinicius Junior, with either Arda Guler or Brahim Diaz completing the front line. In midfield, Eduardo Camavinga or Thiago Pitarch Pinar could step in alongside Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham. At the back, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Dean Huijsen and Alvaro Carreras are all in contention to return to the starting defence.
Head-to-Head
The last six meetings between Bayern and Real have delivered drama and goals, with three wins for Madrid, two for Bayern, and two draws. Bayern’s recent 2-1 away win has swung the momentum. Here’s how the last six played out:
Last 6 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 | Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich | Champions League |
| 08/05/24 | Real Madrid 2-1 Bayern Munich | Champions League |
| 30/04/24 | Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid | Champions League |
| 01/05/18 | Real Madrid 2-2 Bayern Munich | Champions League |
| 25/04/18 | Bayern Munich 1-2 Real Madrid | Champions League |
| 18/04/17 | Real Madrid 4-2 Bayern Munich | Champions League |
Conclusion
Bayern Munich look in pole position to reach the next stage, fuelled by a dominant season and their recent win in Madrid. Yet, with Real Madrid’s firepower and history of overturning deficits, the tie is far from over. Bayern Munich to win and btts at 11/8 @ Bet365 (42.1%) stands out as the value play.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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