Chicago has run for 866 yards and Atlanta for 834. They are the two most productive ground games in the NFL, and our Bears vs Falcons prediction puts them in the same building.
The Chicago Bears are 3-2 with a point differential of +23. The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 despite scoring exactly as many points, 119 apiece, and Bijan Robinson leads the league with 580 rushing yards.
Bears vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Bears vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
First and second in the NFL for rushing yards, in one game. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has actually allowed.
Bears attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 219.2 | 248.4 |
| Rushing yards | 173.2 | 80.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 91.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.7% | 40.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.9% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Falcons attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 195.0 | 215.4 |
| Rushing yards | 166.8 | 96.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 74.9 | 97.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.7% | 26.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 69.2% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.4 |
Figures are season to date, across 5 games.
Neither team throws it well. Chicago rates 80.8 and Atlanta 74.9, the third-lowest figure in football.
Bears vs Falcons quarterback matchup
This is not a passing matchup. Both teams would rather hand it off, and the numbers through the air explain why.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Bears vs Falcons injury report and team news
Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards, the most of any player in the NFL.
Chicago has run for 866 yards, more than any team in the league, with D’Andre Swift on 354 and Kyle Monangai on 324.
Atlanta’s quarterback room will be confirmed on Friday.
Two run games, one field
Eight hundred and sixty-six rushing yards for Chicago, 834 for Atlanta. They are first and second in the NFL, and the Bears do it by committee while the Falcons do it through Bijan Robinson’s league-leading 580.
Whichever defence holds up against the run decides this. On that, Chicago has the edge, conceding 4.40 a carry against Atlanta’s 3.78.
The Bears’ 26.0% third-down defence is the number that actually wins games. Only Minnesota is better, and the Vikings are idle this week.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 580 on the ground, more than any player in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 488 receiving yards, fourth in the league.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 354 rushing yards in the NFL’s busiest ground game.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): A first read in an attack rating 80.8 through the air.
How to watch Bears vs Falcons in Canada
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. CTV shows a Sunday afternoon game in each region, so check your local listings for this one, and RDS has the French-language call. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bears vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 6, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Our Bears vs Falcons prediction is Chicago by 23-20. Both teams want the same game, and the Bears have the better defence for it.
Signal’s live read on this game is worth checking again on Friday.
Every Week 6 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Seahawks @ Broncos | Seahawks 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Ravens @ Browns | Ravens 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Falcons | Bears 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Saints @ Giants | Giants 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Patriots 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Steelers @ Buccaneers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Colts | Colts 23-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ Rams | Rams 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Bills @ Raiders | Bills 30-27 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs 31-13 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Cowboys @ Packers | Packers 27-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
You can find the other games on our NFL hub, with Signal’s read on all of Week 6 alongside them. Both these teams are chasing the NFC Championship odds, with the AFC Championship odds tracked alongside them through the season.
Bears vs Falcons FAQ
Chicago, narrowly, despite playing away. The Bears are 3-2 at +23; Atlanta is 2-3 at -9.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
CTV’s Sunday afternoon game is a regional pick, so check your local listings. RDS has the French call. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass.
Bijan Robinson, with 580 for Atlanta.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change