Chelsea odds to finish top four in the Premier League: Prediction, best players & stats

Chelsea are in another new era in the 2024-25 Premier League, but they’re in a familiar period of struggle.

Life under Enzo Maresca had started so well for Chelsea, and the Blues looked to be Liverpool‘s closest challengers for the Premier League title. A top four finish looked secured too. But now they’re having to fight for the latter. The Blues do currently hold fourth, jumping back up having capitalised on the teams around them recently dropping points.

They’ve been given a 58.82% implied probability of finishing in the top four, per BetMGM odds.

Latest Chelsea odds to finish in 2024-25 Premier League top four

Chelsea’s transfer business

Chelsea were once again busy in the transfer market across both windows. The Blues were focussing more on the future with their signings, though the likes of Joao Felix and Pedro Neto were among the permanent incomings. Conor Gallagher, Lewis Hall and Romelu Lukaku were among the departures in the summer.

Felix was then one of the outgoings in January, leaving on loan after an unhappy start to life in London. January was a big window for loan departures, with Axel Disasi and Ben Chilwell also saying goodbye for the remainder of the season.

Who are Chelsea’s most important players?

Chelsea’s top Premier League Golden Boot contender: Nicolas Jackson

Nicolas Jackson was not Chelsea’s top scorer last season, and he’s not leading the charts this season either. But there’s a lot of promise in the Senegalese striker.

In his first season in the Premier League, the 23-year-old looked a little raw and missed 24 big chances, the third-most in the division. But he also scored 11 big chances and had 14 goals in the league in total. Jackson comes under fire, particularly from a lot of opposition fans, but the Senegalese forward creates opportunities that others wouldn’t with his movement.

This season, Jackson has scored nine goals in 23 matches, bringing his usual chaos. The striker has hit the target with 31 of his 63 shots in the Premier League this season, boasting a decent accuracy of 49.21%. Jackson’s importance has become even clearer in his absence due to injury, with Chelsea seriously struggling without their Senegalese striker.

Chelsea’s primary playmaker: Cole Palmer

Cole Palmer is Chelsea’s top scorer this season. But he’s also their key creator. In fact, he’s the most creative player in the Premier League this season on chances created. The Englishman has created 71 chances in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. He also ranks joint-second for big chances created on 19.

Palmer’s six assists is slightly lower than some of his rivals, but his Expected Assists of 7.31 is again the best in the Premier League. It shouldn’t be a surprise either. Last season, Palmer provided 11 assists in the Premier League, with only Ollie Watkins managing more. Although Palmer has been the man on set pieces for Chelsea, he isn’t relying on them to create his chances. Just 1.75 of Palmer’s 7.31 xA have come from set-play this season.

Chelsea’s card magnets & top tacklers: Moises Caicedo

A lot of emphasis was put on the fact that Chelsea’s two main midfielders last season cost over £100m each. And they are still struggling to gel. But Moises Caicedo had a good first season at Chelsea, growing as the campaign continued. The Ecuadorian was a very important part of Chelsea’s defensive line, trying to protect the back four. And he’s only got better.

Caicedo has been one of Chelsea’s best players, really thriving as part of the double pivot. His passing is improving, but Caicedo is all about stopping opposition attacks. Caicedo has made 72 tackles in the Premier League this season, with only two players managing more across the competition. He also sits top for possessions won in the middle third, at 93.

Chelsea’s rising star: Marc Guiu

Chelsea have hundreds of young players in their squad, so anyone could be their rising star. But Marc Guiu appears to be the one with the best chance of making his mark on the first team. Guiu has been trusted in the Europa Conference League so far and is a danger to opposition defences. With a bit of fine tuning in front of goal, and patience, Guiu could make an impact.

Chelsea’s set-piece specialists:

• Penalties: Cole Palmer
• Free kicks: Cole Palmer
• Corners: Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez

Chelsea’s tactical analysis & formation & player ratings

Chelsea’s team stats from the 2023-24 Premier League season (avg per game):

• Corners: 5.34
• Shots on target: 5.66
• Shots on target conceded: 4.95
• Offsides: 2.24

Chelsea 2024-25 player ratings

• GK: Robert Sanchez – 56% – He hasn’t been everyone’s cup of tea at Chelsea this season, and the Spanish goalkeeper has prevented 1.3 goals while keeping five clean sheets. But he has made five errors leading to goals, the joint-most in the league.
• RB: Malo Gusto – 58% – Gusto hasn’t been as good as he was in 2023-24, but he has still managed 5.24 completed passes into the final third per 90 minutes.
• CB: Tosin Adarabioyo – 73% – Adarabioyo has performed very well when called upon, averaging 0.75 successful offside traps per 90.
• CB: Levi Colwill – 58% – Colwill has been the passing man of the Chelsea defence, completing 8.31 passes into the opposition half per 90. But he could bring a little more defensively.
• LB: Marc Cucurella – 61% – Cucurella has been used as an inverted full-back for Chelsea, which has hampered his Score slightly. But he has won 57.66% of his ground duels in the Premier League, while completing 3.91 passes into the final third per 90.
• DM: Moises Caicedo – 69% – The Ecuadorian has been one of the best No.6s in the Premier League this season. He’s averaged 1.43 interceptions and 1.8 tackles won per 90.
• DM: Enzo Fernandez – 58% – Fernandez has been reliable alongside Caicedo, with 83.95% open-play passing accuracy. But he could be doing a bit better.
• RW: Noni Madueke – 72% – Madueke has been a favourite of Maresca this season when fit, with a whopping 9.23 touches in the opposition per 90.
• No.10: Cole Palmer – 80% – Palmer has been one of the best players in the Premier League this season, scoring 14 goals to go with his six assists. But he’s on a bit of a barren run, and has finally missed a penalty.
• LW: Jadon Sancho – 56% – Sancho has played his way into the starting XI. The Englishman has completed 2.72 take-ons per 90 and has registered 0.2 intentional assists.
• ST: Nicolas Jackson – 75% – He’s still mocked, but Jackson has been a strong striker for Chelsea this season. The Senegalese goalscorer has netted 0.46 goals per 90 in the Premier League, though he’s currently on a poor streak of goal.

Despite utilising a 4-3-3 with Leicester, Enzo Maresca has opted for a 4-2-3-1 at Chelsea. In the first game of the season against Man City, that formation had Enzo Fernandez in the No.10 role and Cole Palmer on the right.

But from the second game onwards, Fernandez has dropped alongside Moises Caicedo in the double pivot. That was partly to replace Romeo Lavia, who suffered a slight injury. But it has continued, with Palmer now the No.10.

This has allowed Noni Madueke to make the right flank his own. The Englishman has had a lot of bright moments this season, including the hat-trick against Wolves. And there’s room to improvement too, especially when it comes to decision-making. On the left, Jadon Sancho has enjoyed a good run of starts of late and looks to be Maresca’s first-choice for the time being.

Robert Sanchez has been handed the No.1 spot, with a back four of Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill and Marc Cucurella earning favour with Maresca.

Chelsea’s Premier League 2024-25 squad

Chelsea FAQs

Where did Chelsea finish in the 2023-24 Premier League season?

Chelsea finished sixth in the 2023-24 Premier League, securing a spot in the Europa Conference League qualifying play-off round.

Who is the Chelsea manager?

Enzo Maresca is the current Chelsea manager, replacing Mauricio Pochettino in the summer.

Who is the current Chelsea captain?

Reece James is the Chelsea captain, with Ben Chilwell vice-captain.

What is Chelsea’s best Premier League finish?

Chelsea are five-time winners of the Premier League, last lifting the trophy in 2016-17.

Chelsea upcoming fixtures

More Premier League 2024-25 content:

• Chelsea 2024-25 Premier League fixtures
• Premier League 2024-25 outright odds
• Premier League 2024-25 Golden Boot odds
• Premier League net spend