Premier League 2024-25 Golden Boot: Favourites, predictions and standings
The 2024-25 Premier League season is already shaping up to be an exciting one.
Manchester City are the defending champions, winning yet another league title, and they’ll be hoping Erling Haaland can keep them on top.
Haaland has won the Premier League Golden Boot in each of the past two seasons, since making the move to Man City in the summer of 2022. His first Golden Boot was scooped up with a record-breaking 36 goals in the Premier League, the most ever scored in a single campaign in the competition.
Last season, Haaland only managed 27 goals as injury hampered his playing time slightly. But it was still enough for him to finish top of the charts. The Norwegian scored five more goals than second-placed Cole Palmer, with Alexander Isak the only other player to hit the 20-goal mark.
Premier League 2024-25 Golden Boot predictions
As expected, Erling Haaland was the pre-season favourite to win the 2024-25 Golden Boot. Twice in Premier League history has a player won the Golden Boot three seasons in a row. Alan Shearer was the first to do so, finishing top scorer in 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97 — breaking the 30-goal mark twice. Then, just under 10 years later, Thierry Henry scooped the Golden Boot in 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06. Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 stopped Henry from winning the Golden Boot in five consecutive seasons.
There was some talk of Haaland’s powers dwindling in the Premier League last season as his number of goals dropped, but the Norwegian was still on top form. He averaged 5.76 touches per shot and 11.81 touches per shot on target in the Premier League last season, a big threat with less time on the ball. And he’s already on 10 goals for the season.
Mohamed Salah is Haaland’s closest challenger, though he was nine goals behind the Man City man last season. The Liverpool forward had an underwhelming campaign by his high standards, but many expect that just to have been a blip in what was a weird season for Liverpool, with the end of the Jurgen Klopp era. Salah has hit the 20-goal mark in four of his seven Premier League seasons since joining Liverpool, including 32 in his first campaign.
Newcastle marksman Alexander Isak enjoyed his most prolific campaign with 21 goals across 30 league outings, and not far behind is Tottenham’s latest striking acquisition, Dominic Solanke, who ensured a move Premier League top-six move after bagging 19 strikes for a bottom-half club, with the plethora of creative players around him, expect the would-be England international pushing to break the 20-goal barrier.
Ollie Watkins whose goals helped fire Aston Villa to the Champions League is among the chasing pack. The Englishman scored 19 goals last season from an xG of 16.83 and perhaps should have got more game time for England at Euro 2024. Cole Palmer was Haaland’s closest challenger on 22 goals but isn’t expected to match his tally for last season, which did see him score nine penalties.
Salah’s Liverpool teammate Darwin Nunez is also backed to have a strong campaign in front of goal, though there is still some work to be done. The Uruguayan scored 11 goals in the Premier League last season but missed 27 of his 33 big chances, the worst conversion of any player to have at least 20 big chances.
Premier League most goals 2024-25
Here’s how the 2024-25 Premier League Golden Boot race is shaping up.
| Player | Goals | Minutes played | Expected Goals |
| Erling Haaland | 10 | 629 | 6.5 |
| Cole Palmer | 6 | 596 | 4.05 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 6 | 629 | 2.85 |
| Luis Díaz | 5 | 451 | 2.69 |
| Jhon Durán | 4 | 184 | 2.06 |
| Noni Madueke | 4 | 480 | 1.89 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 4 | 527 | 5.15 |
| Ollie Watkins | 4 | 535 | 3.56 |
| Liam Delap | 4 | 542 | 1.16 |
| Chris Wood | 4 | 562 | 2.49 |
Players with the same amount of goals are ranked by fewer minutes played. Stats correct as of 21:00 on 06/10/24.
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