Chicago have run for 964 yards, more than any team in the NFL, and they get off the field on 25.8% of third downs. Our Patriots vs Bears prediction opens Week 7 in the early hours.
Both teams are 4-2. The Chicago Bears are +31 on differential and the New England Patriots +23, which is as close as this card gets.
Patriots vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Patriots vs Bears: 2026 form so far
Two 4-2 teams, eight points of differential apart. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has allowed.
Patriots attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 243.5 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards | 130.7 | 90.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 92.7 | 99.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 25.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.8 |
Bears attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 227.7 | 209.0 |
| Rushing yards | 160.7 | 91.8 |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.9 | 90.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 37.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Chicago’s 964 rushing yards lead the league. New England concede 3.94 a carry, the sterner test that number has met.
Patriots vs Bears quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 11 touchdown passes to seven interceptions at 92.8. Caleb Williams has played three games, rates 101.5 and went 30 of 36 last week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 18/32, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 117/183, 1463 yds, 11 TD, 7 INT, 92.8 rtg (6 games) |
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 30/36, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 111.2 rtg | 66/91, 712 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.5 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bears injury report and team news
Chicago have run for 964 yards at 4.46 a carry, more than any team in the NFL.
Caleb Williams has started three games and completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards in the latest.
New England lost Romeo Doubs to injured reserve on 19 October.
Third down decides this
Chicago allow a conversion on 25.8% of third downs. Only one defence in the league is better, and the Bears are 4-2 largely because of it.
New England move the chains on 40.5% of their own, so one of the two has to give.
The Bears’ weakness sits beside their strength: they rate 86.9 through the air, so a deficit forces them into the phase they do least well.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,463 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in six games.
- Caleb Williams (CHI, QB): A 101.5 rating from three starts, and 305 yards last time out.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet in an offence converting 40.5% on third down.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): The first read in a passing game that rates 86.9.
How to watch Patriots vs Bears
Kickoff is 1.15am BST in the early hours of Friday 23 October at Soldier Field, which is 8:15 PM ET on the Thursday. Channel 5 and 5ACTION show selected games free-to-air each Sunday, and those are not affected by the blackout. Check their listings for this week’s picks. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, October 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1.15am BST Fri 23 Oct / 8:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 7, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bears prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Bears prediction is New England by 24-21. The Bears’ third-down defence keeps it close, but Maye has the better supporting numbers.
The live spread and our projected margin both update on this page through the week.
Every Week 7 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Patriots @ Bears | Patriots 24-21 | You are here |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Steelers @ Saints | Steelers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Ravens | Ravens 27-23 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Titans | Browns 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Vikings | Vikings 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Dolphins @ Jets | Jets 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Texans | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | 49ers @ Falcons | 49ers 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Cardinals | Broncos 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Packers @ Lions | Lions 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Rams @ Raiders | Rams 27-23 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Chiefs @ Seahawks | Chiefs 24-23 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Cowboys @ Eagles | Eagles 23-20 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Patriots vs Bears FAQ
1.15am BST in the early hours of Friday 23 October at Soldier Field, which is 8:15 PM ET on the Thursday.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Chicago, with 964 rushing yards — more than any team in the NFL.
Opponents convert 25.8% against them, second-best in the league.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change