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- Kick Off
The United States round off their Group D campaign against already-eliminated Turkey at the 2026 World Cup on Friday, with kick-off set for 3am (UK time) at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have already secured top spot in the group after back-to-back wins over Paraguay and Australia, and will be aiming to maintain their perfect record and carry strong momentum into the knockout stage. Their fast starts have been a notable feature, becoming the first host nation since France in 1938 to score inside the opening 15 minutes of their first two World Cup matches.
Turkey, meanwhile, have been knocked out following a second straight defeat, marking the first time in their World Cup history they have gone two consecutive games without finding the net. With qualification no longer possible, they play for pride in their final outing.
Turkey vs United States predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenan Yildiz to be fouled 2 or more times | 1/1 @ Paddy Power (50%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Yıldız has been Turkey’s most fouled player throughout this World Cup campaign, consistently drawing contact from opponents desperate to stop him running in behind. The Juventus forward operates in tight spaces, changes direction quickly and regularly invites physicality from defenders forced into cynical challenges. Against the USA, Turkey have nothing to lose and will throw Yıldız forward with freedom — more touches in dangerous areas means more opportunity for fouls. Pochettino’s backline will need to be aggressive to contain his movement, and with Yıldız carrying the ball more than any other Turkish player, 2+ fouls looks well within reach at the available price. |
| Result/Both Teams to Score – USA/Yes | 11/4 @ bet365 (26.7%) | ⭐⭐ | The USA have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches, and Turkey carry enough attacking quality to finally trouble a defence that has not been seriously tested at this tournament. Arda Guler, Calhanoglu and Yildiz all possess the individual ability to create and convert – and with elimination already confirmed, Turkey attack without the anxiety that hampered them against Australia and Paraguay. The USA will score; their home crowd, clinical forwards and superior organisation all point that way. But backing the Americans to win while Turkey find the net represents a more considered price than a straightforward USA win alone. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into Turkey vs United States
Turkey
Turkey’s return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence has been a brutal disappointment. A nation that reached the semi-finals in 2002 and the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 arrived in North America as genuine dark horses. They leave without a single point or goal after two games that exposed a damaging gap between individual quality and collective output.
Turkey attempted 62 shots across their opening two matches – surpassing Portugal’s 2006 quarter-final record for the most attempts without scoring across two consecutive World Cup games. The chances are there. The finishing simply has not been. Kenan Yildiz carries the biggest individual xG of any Turkish player yet has still not scored.
A dead rubber against the hosts could be exactly the kind of occasion where Turkey’s handbrake finally comes off. Arda Guler, Calhanoglu and YIldIz have the quality to cause problems against any defence in the world. Friday in Los Angeles offers the chance to sign off from this tournament with a performance worthy of their reputation – even if the stakes no longer matter.
United States
The USA have been the standout performers in Group D, posting 300 high-intensity pressures – among the most in the tournament so far. Pochettino’s side demolished Paraguay 4-1 on matchday one, with Folarin Balogun scoring twice and Christian Pulisic providing three assists. A composed 2-0 win over Australia followed, with the hosts barely breaking sweat in Seattle.
A victory in Los Angeles would make the USA the first American side to claim three consecutive World Cup wins. It would also make Pochettino the most successful American manager in World Cup history, surpassing Bruce Arena’s benchmark of two wins. The sold-out SoFi crowd will drive their team from the first whistle.
Balogun can become the first American to score at least three World Cup goals in a single tournament since Bert Patenaude in 1930. The Monaco striker carries the USA’s primary goal threat and enters this fixture in the form of his international career. Turkey’s elimination removes the pressure from both sides – but the Americans will treat this as vital preparation for what lies ahead.
Turkey team news
Kenan Yıldız should be available despite a calf strain sustained earlier in the tournament. The Juventus midfielder is Turkey’s most dangerous attacking threat and Vincenzo Montella will want him on the pitch in Los Angeles. His 12 attempts on goal across two matches is a tournament-leading number for his side – but he desperately needs his first goal of the competition.
Montella faces selection decisions with nothing to lose and a squad full of players who want minutes. Hakan Calhanoglu captains the side and controls Turkey’s midfield entirely. Arda Guler provides creativity from the right and carries set-piece responsibility.
United States team news
Pochettino faces several selection dilemmas with qualification already secured. He must balance the desire for momentum against the need to keep key players fresh for the knockout rounds. Christian Pulisic, who provided three assists against Paraguay but has been managed carefully since, is a doubt to start.
Alex Freeman has produced a goal and an assist from right-back across both group games and carries the most productive attacking output of any USA defender. There could be plenty of rotation though, with several key players on yellow cards.
Head-to-Head
These two nations have met five times in total, with both sides winning two of the five meetings and one finishing in a draw. The most recent encounter came in June 2025, a 2-1 Turkey win on United States soil. Before that, the USA had won back-to-back friendlies against Turkey in 2014 and 2010. Friday’s Group D finale is the first competitive meeting between these nations.
Who will win the battle in this dead rubber?
Turkey play only for pride in Los Angeles. Their World Cup campaign ends on Friday morning regardless of the scoreline. The United States enter knowing a win completes a perfect group stage and carries precious momentum into the knockout rounds.
We’re backing Kenan Yildiz to be fouled 2 or more times at evens with Paddy Power. It came in during Turkey’s game with Paraguay and we think it hits again.
At a bigger price we fancy USA to win and both teams to score at 11/4 with bet365.
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