Using data from previous tournaments and qualifying, we’ve tasked our model with creating some World Cup AI predictions with correct score picks on every match at this summer’s tournament.
Our AI predictor combines data from qualifying matches, previous World Cups, bookmakers and more to determine the most likely correct score outcome from the game.
As the tournament progresses, the model will focus more heavily on the games that have already taken place within the tournament and it will look beyond results to input shot, possession and general match momentum data to see where value may lie.
Canada vs Bosnia Herzgovina
Canada are the market-led side, but Bosnia-Herzegovina’s underlying data makes this a much tighter call than the headline odds suggest. The match-result market prices Canada at about 51.1%, the draw at 27.6%, and Bosnia-Herzegovina at 21.3% on a no-vig basis. The correct-score market also has 1-0 Canada as the shortest scoreline, ahead of 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1.
The advanced numbers are why I would not call this a comfortable Canada pick. Bosnia-Herzegovina’s 10-match advanced sample shows a side with real attacking output: 16.0 shots per match, 5.3 shots on target, 1.9 big chances created, 30.5 opposition-box touches, and 10.8 inside-box shots per match. Their possession-control profile is respectable rather than dominant, with 425.6 passes attempted, 79.9% pass accuracy, 137.1 final-third passes, and 32.3 passes into the penalty area per match.
The reason the predictor still lands on Canada 1-0 is that the market makes Canada a clear favourite at home, the correct-score market ranks 1-0 as the most likely individual scoreline, and the goal markets are slightly more comfortable with BTTS: No than BTTS: Yes. But the deeper data keeps the confidence down. Bosnia-Herzegovina’s shot volume and box presence are strong enough to make 1-1 the main danger score, especially if Canada fail to control territory for long spells.
AI prediction: Canada 1-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Get the Squawka Bet team’s Mexico vs South Africa tips and predictions here.
South Korea vs Czech Republic
The USA profile is cleaner than Canada’s because both sides returned advanced metrics. The market makes the United States favourites, but not overwhelming ones: the no-vig match-result split is 49.1% USA, 28.1% draw, and 22.8% Paraguay. The most likely correct-score prices are also conservative, with 1-0 USA first, 1-1 second, then 2-0 and 2-1.
The USA edge comes through control. Their advanced sample is only three matches, so it should not be overstated, but the contrast with Paraguay is still useful. The United States attempted 386.3 passes per match to Paraguay’s 286.5, completed them at 78.0% compared with 70.0%, and produced almost twice as many final-third passes: 123.0 to 66.0. They also lost the ball less often relative to their on-ball volume, with 1.3 losses per 100 on-ball events against Paraguay’s 3.0.
Paraguay are not without threat. They matched the USA for big chances created per match, edged them for total shots, and produced slightly more passes into the penalty area. That is why 1-1 is the main alternate. But the USA’s stronger passing base, better final-third volume, higher box-touch count and slightly cleaner defensive concession profile make a narrow win for the hosts the better primary call.
AI prediction: USA 1-0 Paraguay
Get the Squawka Bet team’s USA vs Paraguay tips and predictions here
| Our AI Model’s Prediction | Actual full-time result |
|---|---|
| Mexico 1-0 South Africa | Mexico 2-0 South Africa |
| South Korea 2-1 Czech Republic | TBC |
| Canada 1-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina | |
| USA 1-0 Paraguay |
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