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Australia face a decisive final Group D encounter against Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup, with a place in the Round of 32 on the line. The match kicks off at 3am (UK time) on Friday 26th June at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
With the USA already assured of top spot, the battle for second remains wide open. Australia head into the contest knowing a draw will be enough to book their place in the knockout stages, while Paraguay must claim all three points to move above the Socceroos in the standings.
Turkey’s elimination means neither side can finish outside the top three, but only the team that ends the night in second is guaranteed automatic qualification. Australia therefore hold the advantage, whereas Paraguay have no margin for error if they want to extend their World Cup campaign.
Paraguay vs Australia predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sanabria to have 1 or more shots on target & be fouled 1 or more times | 6/4 @ Paddy Power (40%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Sanabria leads Paraguay’s attack in the absence of the suspended Almirón and carries enormous responsibility in Santa Clara. The Torino striker is physical, direct and never stops running channels – the type of centre-forward who draws fouls simply by holding the ball up and making runs in behind. Australia’s centre-backs will need to be aggressive to contain him, which increases the likelihood of contact. Paraguay must attack to win, meaning Sanabria will see plenty of the ball in dangerous areas. |
| Score from Outside the Box – Julio Enciso | 14/1 @ bet365 (6.7%) | ⭐⭐ | Enciso carries one of the most dangerous long-range shots in this Paraguay squad. The Strasbourg forward consistently arrives late into shooting positions and strikes the ball with real venom from distance – it is one of the most distinctive features of his game at club level. Australia will likely sit in a compact mid-block and look to protect their goal difference, which means space outside the box will open up naturally as Paraguay push forward in search of the win they need. With Almirón absent, Enciso becomes Paraguay’s primary creative outlet and will carry a licence to shoot from range. At the available price, this looks a compelling option. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into Paraguay vs Australia
Paraguay
Paraguay produced one of the group stage’s most impressive defensive performances when they beat Turkey 1-0 despite playing the entire second half with ten men after Miguel Almirón’s first-half red card. Almirón became the first player sent off under FIFA’s new law prohibiting players from covering their mouths during confrontations with opponents. His leadership and attacking quality will be sorely missed in Santa Clara.
Matías Galarza scored the fastest goal of the tournament, netting after just 64 seconds against Turkey. That clinical edge in the opening minutes gives Gustavo Alfaro’s side a blueprint for Friday. If Paraguay can strike early, they take pressure off a backline that struggled badly against the USA’s intensity on matchday one.
Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010 – a return that carries enormous emotional weight for a nation that has waited sixteen years for this moment. Alfaro has built a defensively disciplined side, but they must find goals from somewhere on Friday. Only a win guarantees their passage to the last 32.
Australia
Australia began their campaign with an impressive 2-0 win over Turkey before suffering a 2-0 defeat to the United States on matchday two. Tony Popovic’s side showed their quality against Turkey but struggled to match the intensity of a USA side that dominated from first whistle to last in Seattle. The Socceroos need to rediscover that matchday one sharpness in Santa Clara.
Australia’s superior goal difference over Paraguay means a draw sends them through to the last 32. Popovic will not set up passively, however. Socceroos defender Jason Geria firmly rejected any suggestion of playing for a draw, saying it would be like “cheating the game” to ease off with the score level. That mindset – going for the win regardless of the mathematics – suits Australia’s direct, counter-attacking style.
Popovic made three half-time changes against the USA, bringing on Geria, Metcalfe and Irankunda, before Cristian Volpato made his World Cup debut from the bench. The question for Friday is whether those impact players come into the starting XI. Australia were significantly more dangerous after those substitutions in Seattle.
Paraguay team news
Miguel Almiron serves a one-match suspension in Santa Clara following his red card against Turkey. His absence removes Paraguay’s most creative and experienced attacking threat. Alfaro must find a replacement on the right side capable of providing the same transition quality that Almiron delivers.
There were fears about the fitness of midfielder Diego Gomez, who was taken off against Turkey, but he has reportedly overcome his discomfort in time for the final group game. His return to full fitness is a genuine boost for Alfaro’s midfield options.
Antony Gill continues in goal behind a back four of Richard Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alderete and Matias Alonso. Velazquez, Cubas, Diego Gomez and Galarza are expected across the midfield. Julio Enciso and Jesss Pitta are likely to operate in support of the central striker.
Australia team news
Winger Mathew Leckie suffered a muscle injury against the USA and, while he has not been ruled out of the Paraguay game, it may be safer to bring Cristian Volpato into the lineup in his place. Leckie’s fitness will be monitored closely ahead of kick-off.
Despite struggling against the USA, Aiden O’Neill and Paul Okon-Engstler are expected to start in central midfield for a third time at this World Cup. Centre-backs Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess are unlikely to be rotated after featuring in both previous games.
Goalkeeper Joel Beach continues between the sticks. Danny Italiano has been ruled out and it remains to be seen who will come into the side to replace him. Cristian Volpato, Nestory Irankunda and Mo Toure are competing for the attacking berths.
Head-to-Head
Australia and Paraguay have met three times, all in friendly fixtures. Australia have never lost to Paraguay across those meetings, winning twice and drawing once. The most recent encounter came in October 2010, a 1-0 home win for the Socceroos. Friday’s clash in Santa Clara is the first competitive meeting between the two nations – and both sides know it is the most consequential match they have played against each other.
Which side will advance from Group D?
Both nations enter Friday’s fixture with everything to play for. Australia need only a point to guarantee second place, but Popovic demands more than a safety-first performance in Santa Clara. Paraguay need three points and have nothing to lose – they carry the freedom of a team that must attack.
We’re backing Antonio Sanabria to have 1 or more shots on target & be fouled 1 or more times at 6/4 with Paddy Power.
At a bigger price we fancy Julio Enciso to score from outside the box at 14/1 with bet365.
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