Portugal and Wales renew acquaintances in the Nations League on Thursday, ten years on from their Euro 2016 semi-final, as Craig Bellamy’s newly promoted Wales open Group A4 away to the tournament’s top seed at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon.
Anthony Eadson’s Portugal vs Wales predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson expects Portugal to win a goal-filled rematch.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes to score | 21/10 (BetAhoy) | Bruno Fernandes has started the season in goalscoring form for Manchester United and looks worth backing to find the net for Portugal against Wales. The midfielder has scored four times for United this season, while averaging 0.50 Expected Goals per 90 minutes across all competitions. Fernandes also has a strong record for Portugal outside major tournaments, scoring 16 goals in his last 32 appearances in those matches. At 21/10, he offers value to score anytime. |
| Both teams to score | 6/5 (Coral) | Wales may be up against it, but they have scored in each of their last five games even while leaking at the other end, so they carry a threat through Brennan Johnson and Daniel James. Portugal have not been flawless defensively either and will attack in numbers, which can leave gaps. With the hosts expected to score freely and Wales finding the net regularly of late, goals at both ends looks a fair bet in Lisbon. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Portugal go into the game
Portugal reached the World Cup quarter-finals before losing 1-0 to Spain, a run built on a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan and a battling win over Croatia. They conceded just three goals in five games.
Solid at the back and boasting Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal begin at home in Lisbon as clear favourites.
How Wales go into the game
Wales reach the top tier but arrive winless in four, drawing with Ghana and Northern Ireland and losing to Romania since their play-off heartbreak against Bosnia. They have conceded in every recent game.
Craig Bellamy’s side carry a threat through Brennan Johnson and Daniel James but face a daunting opener against the group’s top seed.
Head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/16 | Portugal | 2-0 | Wales |
| 02/06/00 | Portugal | 3-0 | Wales |
| 12/05/51 | Wales | 2-1 | Portugal |
| 15/05/49 | Portugal | 3-2 | Wales |
Portugal have won three of the four all-time meetings, including the Euro 2016 semi-final, scoring nine and conceding four, with Wales’ only victory coming 75 years ago.
Predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal to win | 2/9 (BetAhoy) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Top seed at home against a winless Wales. |
| Both teams to score | 6/5 (Coral) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Wales have scored in each of their last five. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/15 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | Portugal attack in numbers at home. |
| Portugal to win both halves | 6/4 (Sky Bet) | ⭐⭐ | Portugal should boss both halves against a leaky Wales. |
| Portugal 3-1 Wales | 10/1 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐ | Our call: a comfortable home win with a Wales consolation. |
Portugal vs Wales score prediction
Portugal have the quality and home advantage to control this rematch, but a Wales side who keep finding the net should offer a threat, pointing to a home win with goals at both ends. Score prediction: Portugal 3-1 Wales.
