Mexico and Portugal will play out a friendly at Estadio Azteca with both nations hoping to build confidence ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Mexico have won their last three matches without conceding a goal, while Portugal have won seven of their last nine matches. Both sides will feel they can take the victory in this game but which side will come out on top?
Best Bets & Predictions
With both nations showing an eye for goal in recent games, and a more relaxed friendly allowing both teams to express themselves, we’re backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. We also see plenty of value in Portugal Win 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals | 7/5 @ Ladbrokes (41.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in Mexico vs Portugal is a sensible bet. Their head‑to‑head meetings have averaged 2.75 goals per game, with 75% going over 2.5. Mexico score 1.33 goals per game recently, while Portugal average 2.5. A high‑scoring, BTTS outcome is well supported by the stats. |
| Correct score: Portugal 3-1 Mexico | 16/1 @ BOYLE Sports (5.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Portugal win 3-1 is a sensible correct‑score bet because they’ve dominated this fixture historically: Portugal have won 75% of head‑to‑head matches, with Mexico yet to beat them in four meetings. Portugal also average 2.53 goals per game, significantly higher than Mexico’s 1.52, suggesting multiple goals for the visitors. Meanwhile Mexico’s defensive record shows more goals conceded per game, supporting a Portugal victory with Mexico still likely to score. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Recent Form
Over their last six matches, Mexico’s recent form has been mixed, showing defensive solidity at times but limited attacking output. They’ve won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1, scoring 8 goals (1.33 per game) and going over 2.5 goals in 2 of those games. BTTS has occurred in 2 of the last six, while clean sheets were kept in the remaining four, highlighting defensive discipline.
Recent results include narrow 1‑0 away wins against Bolivia and Panama, but also a 1‑2 loss to Paraguay and goalless draw with Uruguay, illustrating inconsistency in attack.
Overall, Mexico’s defence has been relatively reliable, averaging around 0.5 goals conceded per game, yet their forward line has struggled for consistency, limiting scoring opportunities in several fixtures.
Portugal’s recent form over their last six matches has been attack‑oriented and high‑scoring. They’ve averaged 3.33 goals per game in that run, with four wins, one draw and one defeat, and four of those six matches went over 2.5 goals, underlining their offensive quality.
BTTS has occurred in three of six, showing both Portugal and opponents find the net regularly. Overall, Portugal have been involved in 27 goals across six games (4.5 per match), indicating a potent forward line and dynamic style.
Their broader European qualifying campaign also features a strong scoring record of around 3.34 goals scored per match and 1.17 conceded, highlighting overall attacking strength and reasonable defensive stability. Key results include high‑scoring wins like 9‑1 against Armenia and a 3-2 win over Hungary, reflecting consistency in goals for and against.
Mexico team news
Mexico’s team news ahead of their friendly with Portugal centres on a 26‑man squad named for World Cup warm‑ups, blending experience with fresh options as Javier Aguirre prepares for the summer finals.
Veteran goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa returns, aiming for his sixth World Cup appearance. Key absentees due to injury include Edson Álvarez, Luis Chávez and Santiago Giménez, limiting depth in midfield and attack. Marcel Ruiz and Luis Malagón are also ruled out, while Diego Lainez is omitted despite fitness, reportedly due to tactical decisions rather than injury.
The squad reflects Mexico’s focus on building cohesion and evaluating talent under competitive yet experimental conditions ahead of the tournament.
Portugal team news
Portugal’s team news ahead of their friendly with Mexico mainly centres on Cristiano Ronaldo’s absence; he’s been left out of the squad with a hamstring injury and will miss both the Mexico and USA friendlies as he continues rehabilitation. Coach Roberto Martínez confirmed the veteran striker won’t feature but is expected to still be part of Portugal’s wider World Cup plans once fit.
In Ronaldo’s absence, Portugal’s squad – including attackers like João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos – will be tested, offering opportunities for other forwards to step up and impress before the World Cup.
Defensive and midfield selections remain strong overall, though some regular starters have rotated, reflecting Martinez’s strategy to experiment and build cohesion ahead of summer tournament action.
Head-to-Head: Last 4 Meetings
There have been four meetings between these two nations over the years, with Portugal coming out on top in three of those and the fourth match ending in a draw. These games have averaged 2.75 goals per game.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 02/07/17 | Portugal 1-1 Mexico (Portugal won 2-1 AET) | Confederations Cup |
| 18/06/17 | Portugal 2-2 Mexico | Confederations Cup |
| 07/06/14 | Mexico 0-1 Portugal | Friendly |
| 21/06/06 | Portugal 2-1 Mexico | World Cup |
Conclusion: Who comes out on top in key friendly?
Mexico and Portugal meet at Estadio Azteca on Sunday morning UK time with both sides looking to gain momentum ahead of the World Cup. We’re backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 7/5 with Ladbrokes but, when looking for a little more value on prices, we like the look of Portugal to win 3-1 at 16/1 with BOYLE Sports.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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