Manchester City host Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday with kick-off set for 4:30pm. City have enjoyed near-total control of this fixture, but Bournemouth arrive in an excellent league position, just ahead of City in the table, setting up a fascinating clash of attacking intent and form. Kick-off promises fireworks as Erling Haaland, in red-hot scoring form, faces a Bournemouth side defying expectations early in the campaign. Find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on City’s attacking firepower and Bournemouth’s knack for overperforming in front of goal, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Manchester City to win, given their head-to-head record and superior underlying numbers.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to Win & Over 2.5 Goals | 13/10 @ Bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bournemouth have been a bettor’s delight for goals in away matches, with 14 of their last 16 road games topping 2.5 goals. Since last season, their trips against the previous campaign’s top five sides have averaged 3.9 goals per game. With in-form forwards like Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo leading the line, another high-scoring encounter seems likely, with City just edging ahead. |
| Under 3.5 Cards | 19/20 @ Bet365 (51.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle for this clash. The official gave out zero cards in the Manchester derby and he has one of the lowest yellow cards per game averages in the league this term. Taylor has dished out 2.75 yellows this season, giving plenty of value to the 19/20 on show for Under 3.5 on Sunday. |
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Our approach: Start with Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals, add Haaland anytime scorer for Bet Builder potential.
Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Erling Haaland failed to score for only the second time last weekend as Manchester City were beaten 1-0 by Aston Villa. That defeat has left Pep Guardiola’s side six points adrift of league leaders Arsenal after nine matches, and if they are to challenge the Gunners, they will know they cannot afford to drop any points here. City came out 3-1 winners away at Swansea in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, but will be well wary of Bournemouth’s ability under their Basque boss.
It’s been quite the campaign so far for Bournemouth, who are flying high in second position in the table. The Cherries have taken 18 points from a possible 27, with five wins, three draws and just one solitary defeat that came on the opening day of the season away at Liverpool. European football now looks the target for Andoni Iraola and bookies think so too, with odds of 11/8 on show for a top-six finish.
Manchester City team news
Rodri and Erling Haaland both didn’t feature at Swansea, but have been pictured in training this week. The latter is expected to start.
Bournemouth team news
Evanilson is the only injury concern for Bournemouth, with the forward recobering from a shin injury.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: AFC Bournemouth sit second with 18 points from 9, while Manchester City lurk just behind in fifth on 16. Both sides have five wins, but Bournemouth’s extra draws and slightly better attacking conversion have given them the edge so far. City are +10 on goal difference, Bournemouth +5.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 5 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 16 |
Head-to-Head
Manchester City have dominated this fixture, winning 12 of the last 13 encounters. Bournemouth’s lone win came at home, with City perfect at the Etihad.
Last 9 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20/05/25 | Man City 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 30/03/25 | Bournemouth 1-2 Man City | Premier League |
| 02/11/24 | Bournemouth 2-1 Man City | Premier League |
| 24/02/24 | Bournemouth 0-1 Man City | Premier League |
| 04/11/23 | Man City 6-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 25/02/23 | Bournemouth 1-4 Man City | Premier League |
| 13/08/22 | Man City 4-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 15/07/20 | Man City 2-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 25/08/19 | Bournemouth 1-3 Man City | Premier League |
Conclusion: Can Bournemouth Upset the Odds?
Manchester City’s historic grip on this fixture and their attacking metrics make them clear favourites, but Bournemouth’s current league position and attacking output suggest they’re no pushovers. With both teams boasting in-form forwards and a tendency for open, high-scoring games, we’re tipping City to come out on top – but expect goals at both ends. Back Manchester City to win & over 2.5 goals at 13/10 (43.5%) with Bet365 for the best combination of form and value.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
