Hull City host Derby County in a Championship clash that pits one of the league’s most productive attacks against a side with a dominant head-to-head record.
With Hull sitting 5th and Derby 8th, both teams remain firmly in the hunt for promotion play-off spots. Kick-off is set for 19:45 on Tuesday at the MKM Stadium, where Hull will be eager to shake off their historical struggles against the Rams.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Hull City’s superior attacking stats and Derby’s tendency to keep matches tight, here are our top betting recommendations for this fixture. We’re particularly confident in Hull City to win at home, given their edge in chance creation and shot accuracy, despite Derby’s historical dominance in the fixture.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to Win | 11/8 @ Betfair (42.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Hull have outscored Derby this season (51 vs 47), lead the division in big chances created, and boast higher shot and pass accuracy. At home, they’ll look to overturn a poor head-to-head record on the strength of their offensive output and creativity. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Derby have kept things tight defensively (41 conceded, 8 clean sheets) and five of the last six meetings between these sides have ended with two goals or fewer. There could be value in a cautious contest. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Hull City have powered their way to 5th with 51 goals scored in 32 games, while Derby sit 8th with a more balanced approach but fewer goals. Both are in the play-off mix, but Hull’s attacking stats stand out.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 5 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | +5 | 54 |
| Derby County | 8 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 47 | 41 | +6 | 48 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Liam Millar (Hull City) – A vital attacking threat, Millar has contributed to Hull’s strong dribbling and chance creation figures (209 successful dribbles, 268 key passes as a team), often stretching defences out wide.
- Oliver McBurnie (Hull City) – As a striker, McBurnie will look to exploit Derby’s set-piece weakness; Hull lead the division for big chances created and McBurnie is typically at the end of these moves.
- Carlton Morris (Derby County) – Derby’s attack is most dangerous down the right; Morris can capitalise on Hull’s occasional lapses, with Derby scoring 19 right-footed and 13 headed goals this season.
- Lewis Travis (Derby County) – Not only a defensive mainstay but also a card magnet in midfield, Travis is likely to have a say in both keeping Hull at bay and shaping the discipline angle.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Derby County have dominated recent encounters, winning five of the last six and losing only once to Hull since 2017. Goals have generally been at a premium, with Derby keeping things tight at the back.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 04/11/25 | Derby County 2-1 Hull City | Championship |
| 26/04/25 | Hull City 0-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 26/10/24 | Derby County 1-1 Hull City | Championship |
| 08/02/22 | Derby County 3-1 Hull City | Championship |
| 18/08/21 | Hull City 0-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 18/01/20 | Derby County 1-0 Hull City | Championship |
Conclusion
Will Hull City’s attacking firepower finally overcome their poor record against Derby County? With the home side’s edge in creativity and shot accuracy, this could be the perfect opportunity to reverse the trend. Our top tip is Hull City to win at 11/8 with Betfair (42.7% implied probability). For those who expect another tight game, under 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365 (57.9%) is a solid alternative.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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