Benfica host Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday 28 January in Portugal. Los Blancos are hoping to secure a top-8 finish, while Benfica have a slight chance of making the play-offs. Find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on sharp finishing stats, defensive records, and the presence of Kylian Mbappé, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Real Madrid to win, given their clinical attack and superior conversion rate this season.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Real Madrid because they have scored 19 goals in 7 matches (2.7 per game) from just 140 shots, with a conversion rate nearly double Benfica’s. Their xG overperformance and Mbappé’s clinical form (11 goals, 52.9% shot accuracy) make them deserved favourites. |
| Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer | 4/6 @ Bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to Mbappé’s phenomenal return—scoring 11 times from an xG of just 2.79. He’s had 8 big chances converted and is the focal point of Madrid’s attack, with strong support from Vinicius Jr. |
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Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 15 |
| Benfica | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
Real Madrid sit comfortably inside the top three, winning 71% of their games and boasting a +11 goal difference. Benfica have found life tougher, losing five of seven and sitting 29th in the table, with a -4 goal difference.
Potential Match-Winners
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): 11 goals in 7 games, 52.9% shot accuracy, converting 8 big chances. He’s one of Europe’s most in-form strikers and Madrid’s main attacking outlet.
- Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid): 4 assists from 1.45 xA, showing exceptional creativity and end product. A key source of chances, especially on the counter.
- Bruma (Benfica): While Benfica’s attack has struggled for conversion, Bruma’s directness and ability to shoot from range could trouble Madrid’s defence if given space.
- Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid): Central to Madrid’s defensive structure, responsible for limiting Benfica’s aerial threat and set-piece danger.
Head-to-Head
Last 6 Meetings
This is the first meeting between Benfica and Real Madrid in recent seasons, so there are no recent results to review.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| N/A | N/A | N/A |
Final Thoughts
Will Real Madrid’s attacking efficiency be too much for Benfica’s defensive resilience at home? With Mbappé in red-hot form and Madrid’s conversion rate among the best in Europe, there’s compelling value in backing the visitors to take all three points at 8/11 with Bet365 (57.9%). For those seeking a player angle, Mbappé anytime at 4/6 (60.0%) is difficult to ignore given his current streak. As always, consider the stats and trends before staking—this one could deliver fireworks in Lisbon.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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