Atlético Madrid return to the Metropolitano this weekend looking to extend their dominance over Deportivo Alavés, a side they have beaten ten times in the last sixteen meetings.
Kick-off is set for 15:15 on Sunday, with Diego Simeone’s men eager to consolidate their top-four spot against an Alavés side struggling for goals and form. With the hosts boasting one of La Liga’s tightest defences and Alavés underperforming in attack, all eyes are on whether this match will see business as usual or a surprise twist.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on clinical finishing, defensive reliability, and recent trends, here are our top betting recommendations for this clash. We’re particularly confident in backing Atlético to win, given their home record, attacking efficiency, and Alavés’s ongoing finishing woes.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to Win | 3/10 @ Bet365 (76.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Atlético because they’ve won 10 of their last 16 against Alavés and are unbeaten in their last five meetings. Their home form is strong, with only three losses in 19 league matches this season, while Alavés have scored just 16 goals in 19 games and have struggled away from home all campaign. |
| Julian Alvarez Anytime Scorer | Evs @ Bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Julian Alvarez is in red-hot form, netting 7 goals from just 4.18 xG this season. He’s averaging nearly a goal every 2.7 shots and has been the target man in Atlético’s attack. With Alavés conceding over 1.25 goals per game, Alvarez looks set to get chances. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Atlético Madrid sit in fourth with a commanding +17 goal difference, reflecting both their attacking output (1.79 goals per game) and defensive steel (0.89 conceded per game). Alavés, meanwhile, are just above the drop zone, averaging less than a goal scored per match and conceding 1.26 on average.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 4 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 17 | +17 | 38 |
| Deportivo Alavés | 16 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Julián Alvarez (Atlético): 7 goals from 4.18 xG, 3 assists, 36 key passes, and a 50% shot accuracy. His clinical finishing has turned half-chances into goals.
- Antoine Griezmann (Atlético): 6 goals from just 2.02 xG, showing a knack for scoring from lower-probability opportunities. Also boasts an 85.2% pass accuracy.
- Alexander Sørloth (Atlético): 5 goals (2.64 xG), 57.9% shot accuracy, providing an aerial threat and efficient finishing.
Alavés have struggled to find a regular scorer; their best hope may come from set pieces or a moment of inspiration from the likes of Mariano Díaz or Carlos Vicente, but no single player has more than a handful of goals this campaign.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Atlético Madrid have enjoyed the upper hand in recent meetings, unbeaten in their last five encounters with Alavés and winning three of the last six. Alavés have managed just one win in this fixture since 2023.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 | Deportivo Alavés 1-1 Atlético Madrid | Primera División |
| 03/05/25 | Deportivo Alavés 0-0 Atlético Madrid | Primera División |
| 23/11/24 | Atlético Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alavés | Primera División |
| 21/04/24 | Deportivo Alavés 2-0 Atlético Madrid | Primera División |
| 29/10/23 | Atlético Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alavés | Primera División |
Will Atlético’s efficiency prove too much for Alavés?
Atlético Madrid’s mix of clinical finishing, defensive resilience, and home advantage makes them clear favourites, but can Alavés spring a surprise? With the hosts outperforming their xG by a sizeable margin and Alavés struggling to convert chances, backing Atlético to win at 3/10 with Bet365 (76.9%) looks the standout selection for this match-up.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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