Italy Women vs Spain Women prediction, odds, tips & team news

Italy Women and Spain Women face off in their final Women’s Euro 2025 group stage game at Stadion Wankdorf on Friday 11th July at 8pm (UK time). Spain are currently sitting two points ahead of Italy who are looking to qualify for the knockout rounds for the first time since 2013. This game will be broadcast live in the UK on BBC One. Check out our match preview and best bets below.

Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score (7/4 with Sky Bet)

Spain are expected to win this game, although they have only kept a clean sheet in ten of their previous 11 competitive matches. Spain have put in strong performances against their opening two Group B opponents, with emphatic 5-0 and 6-2 victories over Portugal and Belgium. La Roja have now won seven consecutive matches and taking them to win the game with both teams scoring at 7/4, rather than the 1/5 in the match result market, looks a much more attractive proposition.

Lucia Di Guglielmo to be Carded (4/1 with Betfred)

Spain have the ability to frustrate Italy on Friday and given the magnitude of this match, we may see a high card-count. The player who catches the eye is Le Azzure’s wing-back Lucia De Guglielmo who was booked on four occasions for Roma last season. The Italian gave away three fouls against Belgium in her side’s opening Euros game and may struggle against Claudia Pina on that side of the field.

How both teams go into Italy vs Spain

Italy are eyeing a long-awaited return to the knockout stage of the European Championship, something they haven’t achieved since 2013. After falling at the group stage in the last two editions, they’ve put themselves in a promising position this time around, though Monday’s 1-1 draw with Portugal delayed their qualification.

Cristiana Girelli’s brilliant 70th-minute strike against Portugal looked set to mirror Italy’s opening 1-0 win over Belgium. That hope was briefly reinforced when Portugal’s Diana Silva had a goal chalked off for offside. But an 89th-minute equaliser denied Italy all three points, keeping the group alive.

Still, Italy sit three points ahead of Portugal and hold a healthy advantage in goal difference. Even if they lose their final game and Portugal win, it would take a dramatic goal swing to knock them out of the top two.

If things go as expected, Spain will already be guaranteed a spot in the quarter-finals. It may simply be a case of needing to avoid defeat to secure top spot. La Roja have never failed to advance past the group stage in the Women’s European Championship, with three quarter-final runs and a semi-final appearance. Spain have only failed to make it out of the group in one of their seven major tournament appearances — their Women’s World Cup debut in 2015.

Italy team news

Italy boss Andrea Soncin may opt for consistency as his team looks to seal a place in the knockout rounds, potentially naming an unchanged lineup for the third group match.

In defence, Roma’s Elena Linari is expected to retain her spot alongside Juventus pair Cecilia Salvai and Martina Lenzini in a familiar back three.

Up front, all eyes will again be on Cristiana Girelli, who remains Italy’s key attacking threat. The veteran striker heads into the game in strong form, with four goals in her last five appearances for the national team.

Spain team news

On the Spanish side, head coach Montse Tomé may look to avoid potential suspension headaches by resting Ona Batlle and Laia Aleixandri, who are both a booking away from missing the quarter-finals.

Should she choose to rotate, Jana Fernández and María Méndez are in line to step into the defence, offering reliable cover as Spain aim to manage risk while maintaining momentum.

Italy vs Spain head-to-head

Italy actually enjoy the better head-to-head record against Spain, with six wins to La Roja‘s three. Le Azzurre are also unbeaten in their past two games against Spain.

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